Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding position in the CA-13 House race, with traders assigning him a 94% implied probability of victory over Republican Kevin Lincoln. Gray advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary and benefits from mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50, which shifted the San Joaquin Valley district several points toward Democrats while preserving his incumbency edge from the narrow 2024 flip. Stronger fundraising, endorsements from labor groups, and a projected 18-20 point margin in forecasting models reinforce the consensus. Lincoln, a former Stockton mayor backed by national Republican figures, faces structural headwinds in the altered map. Late national shifts, turnout surprises, or unforeseen candidate developments remain the main variables that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-13 House Election Winner
CA-13 House Election Winner
$16,049 Vol.
$16,049 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Adam Gray (D)
94%
Kevin Lincoln (R)
7%
$16,049 Vol.
$16,049 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Adam Gray (D)
$9,134 Vol.
94%
Kevin Lincoln (R)
$6,915 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding position in the CA-13 House race, with traders assigning him a 94% implied probability of victory over Republican Kevin Lincoln. Gray advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary and benefits from mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50, which shifted the San Joaquin Valley district several points toward Democrats while preserving his incumbency edge from the narrow 2024 flip. Stronger fundraising, endorsements from labor groups, and a projected 18-20 point margin in forecasting models reinforce the consensus. Lincoln, a former Stockton mayor backed by national Republican figures, faces structural headwinds in the altered map. Late national shifts, turnout surprises, or unforeseen candidate developments remain the main variables that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
Volume
$16,049End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding position in the CA-13 House race, with traders assigning him a 94% implied probability of victory over Republican Kevin Lincoln. Gray advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary and benefits from mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50, which shifted the San Joaquin Valley district several points toward Democrats while preserving his incumbency edge from the narrow 2024 flip. Stronger fundraising, endorsements from labor groups, and a projected 18-20 point margin in forecasting models reinforce the consensus. Lincoln, a former Stockton mayor backed by national Republican figures, faces structural headwinds in the altered map. Late national shifts, turnout surprises, or unforeseen candidate developments remain the main variables that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$16,049End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding position in the CA-13 House race, with traders assigning him a 94% implied probability of victory over Republican Kevin Lincoln. Gray advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary and benefits from mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50, which shifted the San Joaquin Valley district several points toward Democrats while preserving his incumbency edge from the narrow 2024 flip. Stronger fundraising, endorsements from labor groups, and a projected 18-20 point margin in forecasting models reinforce the consensus. Lincoln, a former Stockton mayor backed by national Republican figures, faces structural headwinds in the altered map. Late national shifts, turnout surprises, or unforeseen candidate developments remain the main variables that could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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