Recent August CPI data showed headline inflation steady at 3.4% year-over-year while core rose 0.3% month-over-month—exceeding forecasts—and lifted trader focus on persistence in services and energy components ahead of the September reading. Gasoline prices jumped sharply, contributing to higher consumer inflation expectations at 4.6% for the year ahead, amid ongoing geopolitical pressures on oil. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to a September annual rate near 3.43%, with professional forecasts clustered around 3.5%. These elements create tight implied odds between 3.4% and 3.6%, where further energy volatility or shelter trends could shift the outcome before the mid-October release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.5% 37%
3.6% 32%
3.4% 21%
3.7% 8%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
≤2.9%
3%
3.0%
4%
3.1%
5%
3.2%
5%
3.3%
4%
3.4%
21%
3.5%
37%
3.6%
32%
3.7%
8%
3.8%
5%
3.9%
1%
≥4.0%
4%
3.5% 37%
3.6% 32%
3.4% 21%
3.7% 8%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
≤2.9%
$83 Vol.
3%
3.0%
$67 Vol.
4%
3.1%
$64 Vol.
5%
3.2%
$87 Vol.
5%
3.3%
$345 Vol.
4%
3.4%
$716 Vol.
21%
3.5%
$1,397 Vol.
37%
3.6%
$825 Vol.
32%
3.7%
$309 Vol.
8%
3.8%
$54 Vol.
5%
3.9%
$288 Vol.
1%
≥4.0%
$129 Vol.
4%
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August CPI data showed headline inflation steady at 3.4% year-over-year while core rose 0.3% month-over-month—exceeding forecasts—and lifted trader focus on persistence in services and energy components ahead of the September reading. Gasoline prices jumped sharply, contributing to higher consumer inflation expectations at 4.6% for the year ahead, amid ongoing geopolitical pressures on oil. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to a September annual rate near 3.43%, with professional forecasts clustered around 3.5%. These elements create tight implied odds between 3.4% and 3.6%, where further energy volatility or shelter trends could shift the outcome before the mid-October release.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 11:27 AM ET
Volume
$4,166End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August CPI data showed headline inflation steady at 3.4% year-over-year while core rose 0.3% month-over-month—exceeding forecasts—and lifted trader focus on persistence in services and energy components ahead of the September reading. Gasoline prices jumped sharply, contributing to higher consumer inflation expectations at 4.6% for the year ahead, amid ongoing geopolitical pressures on oil. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to a September annual rate near 3.43%, with professional forecasts clustered around 3.5%. These elements create tight implied odds between 3.4% and 3.6%, where further energy volatility or shelter trends could shift the outcome before the mid-October release.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$4,166End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August CPI data showed headline inflation steady at 3.4% year-over-year while core rose 0.3% month-over-month—exceeding forecasts—and lifted trader focus on persistence in services and energy components ahead of the September reading. Gasoline prices jumped sharply, contributing to higher consumer inflation expectations at 4.6% for the year ahead, amid ongoing geopolitical pressures on oil. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to a September annual rate near 3.43%, with professional forecasts clustered around 3.5%. These elements create tight implied odds between 3.4% and 3.6%, where further energy volatility or shelter trends could shift the outcome before the mid-October release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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