Persistent above-target inflation, reinforced by supply shocks from Middle East tensions and resilient labor market data, underpins the 73.5% market-implied odds for at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. August nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside at 162,000 while unemployment held near 4.1%, and year-over-year PCE inflation remains around 3.4–3.7%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks stressing “work to do” on price stability have shifted trader consensus, with futures now pricing meaningful tightening risk at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the dot plot update, which will clarify whether the FOMC views current 3.50–3.75% policy as sufficiently restrictive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated74% chance
$8,781,019 Vol.
$8,781,019 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
74% chance
$8,781,019 Vol.
$8,781,019 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent above-target inflation, reinforced by supply shocks from Middle East tensions and resilient labor market data, underpins the 73.5% market-implied odds for at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. August nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside at 162,000 while unemployment held near 4.1%, and year-over-year PCE inflation remains around 3.4–3.7%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks stressing “work to do” on price stability have shifted trader consensus, with futures now pricing meaningful tightening risk at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the dot plot update, which will clarify whether the FOMC views current 3.50–3.75% policy as sufficiently restrictive.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$8,781,019End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent above-target inflation, reinforced by supply shocks from Middle East tensions and resilient labor market data, underpins the 73.5% market-implied odds for at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. August nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside at 162,000 while unemployment held near 4.1%, and year-over-year PCE inflation remains around 3.4–3.7%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks stressing “work to do” on price stability have shifted trader consensus, with futures now pricing meaningful tightening risk at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the dot plot update, which will clarify whether the FOMC views current 3.50–3.75% policy as sufficiently restrictive.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,781,019End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent above-target inflation, reinforced by supply shocks from Middle East tensions and resilient labor market data, underpins the 73.5% market-implied odds for at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. August nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside at 162,000 while unemployment held near 4.1%, and year-over-year PCE inflation remains around 3.4–3.7%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks stressing “work to do” on price stability have shifted trader consensus, with futures now pricing meaningful tightening risk at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Key near-term catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and the dot plot update, which will clarify whether the FOMC views current 3.50–3.75% policy as sufficiently restrictive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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