Incumbent Rick Crawford holds a commanding position in Arkansas's 1st congressional district due to its strong Republican lean, reflected in a Partisan Voter Index of R+23 and consistent double-digit victories in prior cycles. The district's primary elections were canceled, allowing Crawford and Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green to advance directly to the November 3, 2026, general election alongside a Libertarian candidate. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, consistent with the area's voting patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure. Green's campaign as a first-time candidate has raised modest funds relative to Crawford's substantial war chest. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors, though late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national partisan shift could still alter the outcome before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAR-01 House Election Winner
AR-01 House Election Winner
$26,590 Vol.
$26,590 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Rick Crawford (R)
95%
Terri Green (D)
1%
$26,590 Vol.
$26,590 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Rick Crawford (R)
$16,331 Vol.
95%
Terri Green (D)
$10,259 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rick Crawford holds a commanding position in Arkansas's 1st congressional district due to its strong Republican lean, reflected in a Partisan Voter Index of R+23 and consistent double-digit victories in prior cycles. The district's primary elections were canceled, allowing Crawford and Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green to advance directly to the November 3, 2026, general election alongside a Libertarian candidate. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, consistent with the area's voting patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure. Green's campaign as a first-time candidate has raised modest funds relative to Crawford's substantial war chest. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors, though late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national partisan shift could still alter the outcome before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$26,590End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rick Crawford holds a commanding position in Arkansas's 1st congressional district due to its strong Republican lean, reflected in a Partisan Voter Index of R+23 and consistent double-digit victories in prior cycles. The district's primary elections were canceled, allowing Crawford and Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green to advance directly to the November 3, 2026, general election alongside a Libertarian candidate. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, consistent with the area's voting patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure. Green's campaign as a first-time candidate has raised modest funds relative to Crawford's substantial war chest. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors, though late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national partisan shift could still alter the outcome before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,590End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rick Crawford holds a commanding position in Arkansas's 1st congressional district due to its strong Republican lean, reflected in a Partisan Voter Index of R+23 and consistent double-digit victories in prior cycles. The district's primary elections were canceled, allowing Crawford and Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green to advance directly to the November 3, 2026, general election alongside a Libertarian candidate. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Republican, consistent with the area's voting patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure. Green's campaign as a first-time candidate has raised modest funds relative to Crawford's substantial war chest. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors, though late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national partisan shift could still alter the outcome before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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