Mexico's annual inflation rate has moderated from peaks above 4% earlier in 2026 to 3.26% in August, following a July reading of 3.12%, as non-core components eased while core inflation held near 3.88%. Banxico has maintained its policy rate at 6.50% through mid-2026, citing persistent core pressures and upside risks from trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, and potential peso depreciation, with official projections now pointing to convergence to the 3% target only by late 2027. These developments underpin trader consensus reflected in the 37.5% market-implied odds for a 4.00-4.49% 2026 outcome, above the 20.8% probability assigned to the 3.00-3.49% band, amid expectations that recent disinflation momentum may stall near the upper end of the 2-4% tolerance range.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert4,00 % bis 4,49 % 38%
3,00 % bis 3,49 % 20.8%
3,50 % bis 3,99 % 16.9%
4,50 % bis 4,99 % 8%
$67,272 Vol.
$67,272 Vol.
7. Jan. 2027
<2,50 %
6%
2,50 % bis 2,99 %
6%
3,00 % bis 3,49 %
21%
3,50 % bis 3,99 %
17%
4,00 % bis 4,49 %
38%
4,50 % bis 4,99 %
8%
5,00 % bis 5,49 %
4%
5,50 %+
1%
4,00 % bis 4,49 % 38%
3,00 % bis 3,49 % 20.8%
3,50 % bis 3,99 % 16.9%
4,50 % bis 4,99 % 8%
$67,272 Vol.
$67,272 Vol.
7. Jan. 2027
<2,50 %
$1,195 Vol.
6%
2,50 % bis 2,99 %
$4,895 Vol.
6%
3,00 % bis 3,49 %
$29,128 Vol.
21%
3,50 % bis 3,99 %
$4,238 Vol.
17%
4,00 % bis 4,49 %
$13,991 Vol.
38%
4,50 % bis 4,99 %
$4,932 Vol.
8%
5,00 % bis 5,49 %
$2,577 Vol.
4%
5,50 %+
$6,318 Vol.
1%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioMexico's annual inflation rate has moderated from peaks above 4% earlier in 2026 to 3.26% in August, following a July reading of 3.12%, as non-core components eased while core inflation held near 3.88%. Banxico has maintained its policy rate at 6.50% through mid-2026, citing persistent core pressures and upside risks from trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, and potential peso depreciation, with official projections now pointing to convergence to the 3% target only by late 2027. These developments underpin trader consensus reflected in the 37.5% market-implied odds for a 4.00-4.49% 2026 outcome, above the 20.8% probability assigned to the 3.00-3.49% band, amid expectations that recent disinflation momentum may stall near the upper end of the 2-4% tolerance range.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Markt eröffnet: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$67,272Enddatum
8. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioMexico's annual inflation rate has moderated from peaks above 4% earlier in 2026 to 3.26% in August, following a July reading of 3.12%, as non-core components eased while core inflation held near 3.88%. Banxico has maintained its policy rate at 6.50% through mid-2026, citing persistent core pressures and upside risks from trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, and potential peso depreciation, with official projections now pointing to convergence to the 3% target only by late 2027. These developments underpin trader consensus reflected in the 37.5% market-implied odds for a 4.00-4.49% 2026 outcome, above the 20.8% probability assigned to the 3.00-3.49% band, amid expectations that recent disinflation momentum may stall near the upper end of the 2-4% tolerance range.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volumen
$67,272Enddatum
8. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Mexico's annual inflation rate has moderated from peaks above 4% earlier in 2026 to 3.26% in August, following a July reading of 3.12%, as non-core components eased while core inflation held near 3.88%. Banxico has maintained its policy rate at 6.50% through mid-2026, citing persistent core pressures and upside risks from trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, and potential peso depreciation, with official projections now pointing to convergence to the 3% target only by late 2027. These developments underpin trader consensus reflected in the 37.5% market-implied odds for a 4.00-4.49% 2026 outcome, above the 20.8% probability assigned to the 3.00-3.49% band, amid expectations that recent disinflation momentum may stall near the upper end of the 2-4% tolerance range.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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