**Core CPI YoY for September 2026 trades with the highest implied probability at 2.4% (39.5%), followed by 2.5% (25.0%) and 2.3% (21.5%).** The August 2026 release, which printed exactly at 2.4% YoY after a 2.5% July reading, combined with the Cleveland Fed nowcast at 2.39% for September, has centered trader consensus near these levels. The firmer 0.3% monthly core pace (versus 0.2% expected) and elevated energy prices from geopolitical supply shocks introduce upside risks, while ongoing moderation in shelter (down to 3.0% YoY) and goods prices supports the lower end of the distribution. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated positioning ahead of the October 14 BLS release, with the tight clustering around 2.3–2.5% underscoring uncertainty over whether the recent monthly reacceleration persists into September data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert2,4 % 40%
2,5 % 25%
2,3 % 22%
2,2 % 7%
NEU
NEU
14. Okt. 2026
≤2,0 %
5%
2,1 %
5%
2,2 %
7%
2,3 %
22%
2,4 %
40%
2,5 %
25%
2,6 %
7%
2,7%
5%
2,8 %
5%
≥2,9 %
3%
2,4 % 40%
2,5 % 25%
2,3 % 22%
2,2 % 7%
NEU
NEU
14. Okt. 2026
≤2,0 %
$142 Vol.
5%
2,1 %
$142 Vol.
5%
2,2 %
$162 Vol.
7%
2,3 %
$453 Vol.
22%
2,4 %
$1,243 Vol.
40%
2,5 %
$285 Vol.
25%
2,6 %
$282 Vol.
7%
2,7%
$182 Vol.
5%
2,8 %
$142 Vol.
5%
≥2,9 %
$349 Vol.
3%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**Core CPI YoY for September 2026 trades with the highest implied probability at 2.4% (39.5%), followed by 2.5% (25.0%) and 2.3% (21.5%).** The August 2026 release, which printed exactly at 2.4% YoY after a 2.5% July reading, combined with the Cleveland Fed nowcast at 2.39% for September, has centered trader consensus near these levels. The firmer 0.3% monthly core pace (versus 0.2% expected) and elevated energy prices from geopolitical supply shocks introduce upside risks, while ongoing moderation in shelter (down to 3.0% YoY) and goods prices supports the lower end of the distribution. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated positioning ahead of the October 14 BLS release, with the tight clustering around 2.3–2.5% underscoring uncertainty over whether the recent monthly reacceleration persists into September data.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ET
Volumen
$3,383Enddatum
15. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**Core CPI YoY for September 2026 trades with the highest implied probability at 2.4% (39.5%), followed by 2.5% (25.0%) and 2.3% (21.5%).** The August 2026 release, which printed exactly at 2.4% YoY after a 2.5% July reading, combined with the Cleveland Fed nowcast at 2.39% for September, has centered trader consensus near these levels. The firmer 0.3% monthly core pace (versus 0.2% expected) and elevated energy prices from geopolitical supply shocks introduce upside risks, while ongoing moderation in shelter (down to 3.0% YoY) and goods prices supports the lower end of the distribution. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated positioning ahead of the October 14 BLS release, with the tight clustering around 2.3–2.5% underscoring uncertainty over whether the recent monthly reacceleration persists into September data.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$3,383Enddatum
15. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Core CPI YoY for September 2026 trades with the highest implied probability at 2.4% (39.5%), followed by 2.5% (25.0%) and 2.3% (21.5%).** The August 2026 release, which printed exactly at 2.4% YoY after a 2.5% July reading, combined with the Cleveland Fed nowcast at 2.39% for September, has centered trader consensus near these levels. The firmer 0.3% monthly core pace (versus 0.2% expected) and elevated energy prices from geopolitical supply shocks introduce upside risks, while ongoing moderation in shelter (down to 3.0% YoY) and goods prices supports the lower end of the distribution. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated positioning ahead of the October 14 BLS release, with the tight clustering around 2.3–2.5% underscoring uncertainty over whether the recent monthly reacceleration persists into September data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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