India's CPI inflation for 2026-27 is projected by the Reserve Bank of India at 5.0 percent, with quarterly paths showing a rise to 5.9 percent in Q3 before moderating, driven primarily by elevated food prices, fuel costs, and pass-through from global crude oil averaging above $100 per barrel in recent periods. Recent prints have accelerated to 4.45 percent in July and are expected near 4.8 percent in August, reflecting persistent pressures from input costs and restaurant services amid contained core inflation around 3.9 percent. This supports the dominant market-implied probability above 4.50 percent as trader consensus aligns with official forecasts and data trends. Realistically challenging this would require sharper declines in energy prices, favorable monsoon outcomes easing food inflation, or faster rupee appreciation curbing import costs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert4,50 %+ 91%
3,75 % bis 4,49 % 4.9%
<0,75 % <1%
3,00 % bis 3,74 % <1%
$83,982 Vol.
$83,982 Vol.
11. Jan. 2027
<0,75 %
1%
0,75 % bis 1,49 %
<1%
1,50 % bis 2,24 %
<1%
2,25 % bis 2,99 %
<1%
3,00 % bis 3,74 %
1%
3,75 % bis 4,49 %
5%
4,50 %+
91%
4,50 %+ 91%
3,75 % bis 4,49 % 4.9%
<0,75 % <1%
3,00 % bis 3,74 % <1%
$83,982 Vol.
$83,982 Vol.
11. Jan. 2027
<0,75 %
$2,299 Vol.
1%
0,75 % bis 1,49 %
$1,520 Vol.
<1%
1,50 % bis 2,24 %
$1,580 Vol.
<1%
2,25 % bis 2,99 %
$25,446 Vol.
<1%
3,00 % bis 3,74 %
$2,410 Vol.
1%
3,75 % bis 4,49 %
$30,349 Vol.
5%
4,50 %+
$20,377 Vol.
91%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfIndia's CPI inflation for 2026-27 is projected by the Reserve Bank of India at 5.0 percent, with quarterly paths showing a rise to 5.9 percent in Q3 before moderating, driven primarily by elevated food prices, fuel costs, and pass-through from global crude oil averaging above $100 per barrel in recent periods. Recent prints have accelerated to 4.45 percent in July and are expected near 4.8 percent in August, reflecting persistent pressures from input costs and restaurant services amid contained core inflation around 3.9 percent. This supports the dominant market-implied probability above 4.50 percent as trader consensus aligns with official forecasts and data trends. Realistically challenging this would require sharper declines in energy prices, favorable monsoon outcomes easing food inflation, or faster rupee appreciation curbing import costs.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$83,982Enddatum
12. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfIndia's CPI inflation for 2026-27 is projected by the Reserve Bank of India at 5.0 percent, with quarterly paths showing a rise to 5.9 percent in Q3 before moderating, driven primarily by elevated food prices, fuel costs, and pass-through from global crude oil averaging above $100 per barrel in recent periods. Recent prints have accelerated to 4.45 percent in July and are expected near 4.8 percent in August, reflecting persistent pressures from input costs and restaurant services amid contained core inflation around 3.9 percent. This supports the dominant market-implied probability above 4.50 percent as trader consensus aligns with official forecasts and data trends. Realistically challenging this would require sharper declines in energy prices, favorable monsoon outcomes easing food inflation, or faster rupee appreciation curbing import costs.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volumen
$83,982Enddatum
12. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...India's CPI inflation for 2026-27 is projected by the Reserve Bank of India at 5.0 percent, with quarterly paths showing a rise to 5.9 percent in Q3 before moderating, driven primarily by elevated food prices, fuel costs, and pass-through from global crude oil averaging above $100 per barrel in recent periods. Recent prints have accelerated to 4.45 percent in July and are expected near 4.8 percent in August, reflecting persistent pressures from input costs and restaurant services amid contained core inflation around 3.9 percent. This supports the dominant market-implied probability above 4.50 percent as trader consensus aligns with official forecasts and data trends. Realistically challenging this would require sharper declines in energy prices, favorable monsoon outcomes easing food inflation, or faster rupee appreciation curbing import costs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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