Escalating US-Iran military exchanges and the naval blockade restricting Iranian oil exports have driven the rial to record free-market lows near 2.35 million per dollar in early September, reflecting sharply reduced hard-currency inflows. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the 3.0–3.5 million and 2.0–2.5 million ranges by year-end because the outcome hinges on whether sanctions pressure and supply disruptions persist or whether diplomatic channels or reduced tensions allow partial revenue recovery. Central Bank interventions and oil-price spikes above $100 per barrel add further variables, keeping implied probabilities closely balanced without a dominant scenario.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert3,0 - 3,5 Mio. 31%
2,0 - 2,5 Mio. 27%
<2,0 Mio. 18%
3,5 - 4,0 Mio. 16.5%
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
<2,0 Mio.
18%
2,0 - 2,5 Mio.
27%
2,5 - 3,0 Mio.
9%
3,0 - 3,5 Mio.
31%
3,5 - 4,0 Mio.
17%
4,0 Mio.+
3%
3,0 - 3,5 Mio. 31%
2,0 - 2,5 Mio. 27%
<2,0 Mio. 18%
3,5 - 4,0 Mio. 16.5%
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
<2,0 Mio.
$2,926 Vol.
18%
2,0 - 2,5 Mio.
$691 Vol.
27%
2,5 - 3,0 Mio.
$997 Vol.
9%
3,0 - 3,5 Mio.
$1,717 Vol.
31%
3,5 - 4,0 Mio.
$1,334 Vol.
17%
4,0 Mio.+
$196 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for December 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Escalating US-Iran military exchanges and the naval blockade restricting Iranian oil exports have driven the rial to record free-market lows near 2.35 million per dollar in early September, reflecting sharply reduced hard-currency inflows. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the 3.0–3.5 million and 2.0–2.5 million ranges by year-end because the outcome hinges on whether sanctions pressure and supply disruptions persist or whether diplomatic channels or reduced tensions allow partial revenue recovery. Central Bank interventions and oil-price spikes above $100 per barrel add further variables, keeping implied probabilities closely balanced without a dominant scenario.
This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for December 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 3, 2026, 6:23 PM ET
Volumen
$7,859Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 3, 2026, 6:23 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for December 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Escalating US-Iran military exchanges and the naval blockade restricting Iranian oil exports have driven the rial to record free-market lows near 2.35 million per dollar in early September, reflecting sharply reduced hard-currency inflows. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the 3.0–3.5 million and 2.0–2.5 million ranges by year-end because the outcome hinges on whether sanctions pressure and supply disruptions persist or whether diplomatic channels or reduced tensions allow partial revenue recovery. Central Bank interventions and oil-price spikes above $100 per barrel add further variables, keeping implied probabilities closely balanced without a dominant scenario.
This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for December 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$7,859Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 3, 2026, 6:23 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Escalating US-Iran military exchanges and the naval blockade restricting Iranian oil exports have driven the rial to record free-market lows near 2.35 million per dollar in early September, reflecting sharply reduced hard-currency inflows. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the 3.0–3.5 million and 2.0–2.5 million ranges by year-end because the outcome hinges on whether sanctions pressure and supply disruptions persist or whether diplomatic channels or reduced tensions allow partial revenue recovery. Central Bank interventions and oil-price spikes above $100 per barrel add further variables, keeping implied probabilities closely balanced without a dominant scenario.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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