Recent developments in the Middle East conflict have sustained elevated energy prices and inflationary pressures, weighing on global output while the economy has shown notable resilience through inventory drawdowns and substitution effects. Official forecasts reflect this balance, with the IMF holding its 2026 world GDP growth projection near 3.0% in its September assessment—unchanged from July—while the World Bank’s June outlook sits lower at 2.5% and private consensus estimates cluster around 2.5%. AI-driven investment and technology spending provide a partial offset, supporting activity in advanced and Asian economies, though high public debt near 100% of GDP and stalled disinflation add downside risks. The closely matched probabilities around 3.0–3.1% capture uncertainty ahead of the IMF’s October update, with swing factors including energy market developments and Q3 data releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert3,1 % 36.8%
3,0 % 28.7%
≤2,9% 15.8%
3,2 % 11.6%
$32,475 Vol.
$32,475 Vol.
14. Jan. 2027
≤2,9%
16%
3,0 %
29%
3,1 %
37%
3,2 %
12%
3,3 %
3%
3,4 %
5%
3,5 %
2%
3,6 %
3%
3,7 %+
1%
3,1 % 36.8%
3,0 % 28.7%
≤2,9% 15.8%
3,2 % 11.6%
$32,475 Vol.
$32,475 Vol.
14. Jan. 2027
≤2,9%
$6,278 Vol.
16%
3,0 %
$5,338 Vol.
29%
3,1 %
$4,396 Vol.
37%
3,2 %
$2,317 Vol.
12%
3,3 %
$4,033 Vol.
3%
3,4 %
$4,552 Vol.
5%
3,5 %
$3,589 Vol.
2%
3,6 %
$912 Vol.
3%
3,7 %+
$1,060 Vol.
1%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent developments in the Middle East conflict have sustained elevated energy prices and inflationary pressures, weighing on global output while the economy has shown notable resilience through inventory drawdowns and substitution effects. Official forecasts reflect this balance, with the IMF holding its 2026 world GDP growth projection near 3.0% in its September assessment—unchanged from July—while the World Bank’s June outlook sits lower at 2.5% and private consensus estimates cluster around 2.5%. AI-driven investment and technology spending provide a partial offset, supporting activity in advanced and Asian economies, though high public debt near 100% of GDP and stalled disinflation add downside risks. The closely matched probabilities around 3.0–3.1% capture uncertainty ahead of the IMF’s October update, with swing factors including energy market developments and Q3 data releases.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Volumen
$32,475Enddatum
15. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent developments in the Middle East conflict have sustained elevated energy prices and inflationary pressures, weighing on global output while the economy has shown notable resilience through inventory drawdowns and substitution effects. Official forecasts reflect this balance, with the IMF holding its 2026 world GDP growth projection near 3.0% in its September assessment—unchanged from July—while the World Bank’s June outlook sits lower at 2.5% and private consensus estimates cluster around 2.5%. AI-driven investment and technology spending provide a partial offset, supporting activity in advanced and Asian economies, though high public debt near 100% of GDP and stalled disinflation add downside risks. The closely matched probabilities around 3.0–3.1% capture uncertainty ahead of the IMF’s October update, with swing factors including energy market developments and Q3 data releases.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$32,475Enddatum
15. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Recent developments in the Middle East conflict have sustained elevated energy prices and inflationary pressures, weighing on global output while the economy has shown notable resilience through inventory drawdowns and substitution effects. Official forecasts reflect this balance, with the IMF holding its 2026 world GDP growth projection near 3.0% in its September assessment—unchanged from July—while the World Bank’s June outlook sits lower at 2.5% and private consensus estimates cluster around 2.5%. AI-driven investment and technology spending provide a partial offset, supporting activity in advanced and Asian economies, though high public debt near 100% of GDP and stalled disinflation add downside risks. The closely matched probabilities around 3.0–3.1% capture uncertainty ahead of the IMF’s October update, with swing factors including energy market developments and Q3 data releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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