Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1, combined with the Federal Reserve’s June SEP median projection of 2.2% for the year, has anchored trader consensus around the 2.0–2.5% outcome at 57.5% implied probability. Resilient consumer spending, productivity gains, and a labor market with unemployment near 4.1% and solid August payrolls support moderate expansion, while elevated 3.4% CPI and energy price pressures from Middle East developments introduce downside risks. Private forecasts cluster between 2.1% and 2.4%, and the September 16 FOMC update plus Q3 data releases represent key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities within the current range.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert2,0–2,5 % 57%
1,5–2,0 % 16.0%
>2,5 % 13.5%
<0,5 % 4.7%
$68,197 Vol.
$68,197 Vol.
<0,5 %
5%
0,5–1,0 %
1%
1,0–1,5 %
1%
1,5–2,0 %
16%
2,0–2,5 %
57%
>2,5 %
13%
2,0–2,5 % 57%
1,5–2,0 % 16.0%
>2,5 % 13.5%
<0,5 % 4.7%
$68,197 Vol.
$68,197 Vol.
<0,5 %
5%
0,5–1,0 %
1%
1,0–1,5 %
1%
1,5–2,0 %
16%
2,0–2,5 %
57%
>2,5 %
13%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1, combined with the Federal Reserve’s June SEP median projection of 2.2% for the year, has anchored trader consensus around the 2.0–2.5% outcome at 57.5% implied probability. Resilient consumer spending, productivity gains, and a labor market with unemployment near 4.1% and solid August payrolls support moderate expansion, while elevated 3.4% CPI and energy price pressures from Middle East developments introduce downside risks. Private forecasts cluster between 2.1% and 2.4%, and the September 16 FOMC update plus Q3 data releases represent key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities within the current range.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert


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