Recent quarterly GDP releases showing 0.6% growth in Q1 2026 and 0.4% in Q2 have reinforced trader expectations for full-year expansion near 1.1%, aligning with the dominant 1-2% outcome. Consensus projections from the IMF, Bank of England, and Reuters economist surveys center on 1.0-1.2% annual growth, tempered by the energy price surge tied to Middle East conflict, which has lifted CPI toward 3% and weighed on real incomes. Monetary policy remains on hold at 3.75% with limited near-term easing priced in, supporting steady but sub-potential momentum. Higher growth brackets above 2% carry low implied odds given subdued business surveys and the anticipated H2 slowdown, while sub-1% outcomes reflect downside risks from persistent inflation and external shocks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert1-2 % 86.9%
0–1 % 12%
3-4 % 1.4%
<0 1.2%
$83,220 Vol.
$83,220 Vol.
11. Feb. 2027
<0
1%
0–1 %
12%
1-2 %
87%
2–3 %
1%
3-4 %
1%
4-5 %
<1%
5 %+
<1%
1-2 % 86.9%
0–1 % 12%
3-4 % 1.4%
<0 1.2%
$83,220 Vol.
$83,220 Vol.
11. Feb. 2027
<0
$11,936 Vol.
1%
0–1 %
$20,120 Vol.
12%
1-2 %
$30,060 Vol.
87%
2–3 %
$4,696 Vol.
1%
3-4 %
$3,628 Vol.
1%
4-5 %
$8,775 Vol.
<1%
5 %+
$4,006 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent quarterly GDP releases showing 0.6% growth in Q1 2026 and 0.4% in Q2 have reinforced trader expectations for full-year expansion near 1.1%, aligning with the dominant 1-2% outcome. Consensus projections from the IMF, Bank of England, and Reuters economist surveys center on 1.0-1.2% annual growth, tempered by the energy price surge tied to Middle East conflict, which has lifted CPI toward 3% and weighed on real incomes. Monetary policy remains on hold at 3.75% with limited near-term easing priced in, supporting steady but sub-potential momentum. Higher growth brackets above 2% carry low implied odds given subdued business surveys and the anticipated H2 slowdown, while sub-1% outcomes reflect downside risks from persistent inflation and external shocks.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volumen
$83,220Enddatum
12. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent quarterly GDP releases showing 0.6% growth in Q1 2026 and 0.4% in Q2 have reinforced trader expectations for full-year expansion near 1.1%, aligning with the dominant 1-2% outcome. Consensus projections from the IMF, Bank of England, and Reuters economist surveys center on 1.0-1.2% annual growth, tempered by the energy price surge tied to Middle East conflict, which has lifted CPI toward 3% and weighed on real incomes. Monetary policy remains on hold at 3.75% with limited near-term easing priced in, supporting steady but sub-potential momentum. Higher growth brackets above 2% carry low implied odds given subdued business surveys and the anticipated H2 slowdown, while sub-1% outcomes reflect downside risks from persistent inflation and external shocks.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$83,220Enddatum
12. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Recent quarterly GDP releases showing 0.6% growth in Q1 2026 and 0.4% in Q2 have reinforced trader expectations for full-year expansion near 1.1%, aligning with the dominant 1-2% outcome. Consensus projections from the IMF, Bank of England, and Reuters economist surveys center on 1.0-1.2% annual growth, tempered by the energy price surge tied to Middle East conflict, which has lifted CPI toward 3% and weighed on real incomes. Monetary policy remains on hold at 3.75% with limited near-term easing priced in, supporting steady but sub-potential momentum. Higher growth brackets above 2% carry low implied odds given subdued business surveys and the anticipated H2 slowdown, while sub-1% outcomes reflect downside risks from persistent inflation and external shocks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen