Michigan voters face an automatic ballot question every 16 years on convening a constitutional convention to consider a general revision of the 1963 state constitution. Historical precedent shows strong rejection, including a 67% no vote in 2010, with similar outcomes in prior cycles. Current dynamics reinforce this pattern through bipartisan skepticism, limited organized advocacy for the measure, and concerns over a polarized process that could upend existing provisions on redistricting, taxes, and rights. A September 2026 poll indicated 47% support but left over 20% undecided amid minimal campaign activity. Traders price the no outcome near certainty because these structural and historical factors have repeatedly prevailed, though late shifts in turnout, endorsements, or voter mobilization before November could still alter the result.