Anthropic holds an overwhelming 83.5% market-implied probability of leading in AI agent performance by end of October, reflecting trader consensus on its recent strides in tool-use frameworks and autonomous task execution via Claude models. OpenAI trails at 16%, with all other labs under 2%, as competitive positioning favors Anthropic's edge in reliable multi-step reasoning and integration with external environments over rivals' offerings. Key factors include demonstrated capabilities in agent benchmarks, where precision and safety features reduce errors in complex workflows, alongside the broader industry shift toward practical AI agents rather than chat-focused systems. Resolution will likely hinge on verifiable benchmarks or expert evaluations released in the coming weeks, with any new model updates or capability demos serving as potential swing events before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 84%
OpenAI 16%
Meta 1.5%
谷歌 <1%
$31,169 交易量
$31,169 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
84%
OpenAI
16%
Meta
2%
谷歌
1%
阿里巴巴
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Moonshot
1%
字节跳动
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
小米
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
英伟达
<1%
百度
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
美团
<1%
微软
<1%
Anthropic 84%
OpenAI 16%
Meta 1.5%
谷歌 <1%
$31,169 交易量
$31,169 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
$16,156 交易量
84%
OpenAI
$4,240 交易量
16%
Meta
$1,133 交易量
2%
谷歌
$1,001 交易量
1%
阿里巴巴
$796 交易量
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,172 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$865 交易量
1%
字节跳动
$464 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$808 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$509 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$372 交易量
<1%
小米
$511 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$497 交易量
<1%
英伟达
$464 交易量
<1%
百度
$335 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$660 交易量
<1%
美团
$675 交易量
<1%
微软
$509 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds an overwhelming 83.5% market-implied probability of leading in AI agent performance by end of October, reflecting trader consensus on its recent strides in tool-use frameworks and autonomous task execution via Claude models. OpenAI trails at 16%, with all other labs under 2%, as competitive positioning favors Anthropic's edge in reliable multi-step reasoning and integration with external environments over rivals' offerings. Key factors include demonstrated capabilities in agent benchmarks, where precision and safety features reduce errors in complex workflows, alongside the broader industry shift toward practical AI agents rather than chat-focused systems. Resolution will likely hinge on verifiable benchmarks or expert evaluations released in the coming weeks, with any new model updates or capability demos serving as potential swing events before the deadline.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
交易量
$31,169结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds an overwhelming 83.5% market-implied probability of leading in AI agent performance by end of October, reflecting trader consensus on its recent strides in tool-use frameworks and autonomous task execution via Claude models. OpenAI trails at 16%, with all other labs under 2%, as competitive positioning favors Anthropic's edge in reliable multi-step reasoning and integration with external environments over rivals' offerings. Key factors include demonstrated capabilities in agent benchmarks, where precision and safety features reduce errors in complex workflows, alongside the broader industry shift toward practical AI agents rather than chat-focused systems. Resolution will likely hinge on verifiable benchmarks or expert evaluations released in the coming weeks, with any new model updates or capability demos serving as potential swing events before the deadline.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$31,169结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETAnthropic holds an overwhelming 83.5% market-implied probability of leading in AI agent performance by end of October, reflecting trader consensus on its recent strides in tool-use frameworks and autonomous task execution via Claude models. OpenAI trails at 16%, with all other labs under 2%, as competitive positioning favors Anthropic's edge in reliable multi-step reasoning and integration with external environments over rivals' offerings. Key factors include demonstrated capabilities in agent benchmarks, where precision and safety features reduce errors in complex workflows, alongside the broader industry shift toward practical AI agents rather than chat-focused systems. Resolution will likely hinge on verifiable benchmarks or expert evaluations released in the coming weeks, with any new model updates or capability demos serving as potential swing events before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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