The closely matched 50% implied probabilities across numerous AI agent labs reflect intense competition and limited differentiation in capabilities as of late September 2026, with no single developer holding a decisive edge in agent benchmarks or real-world deployment. Moonshot's 40.5% standing stands out amid lower odds for established players like OpenAI and Google, driven by recent model updates and partnerships that have narrowed gaps in reasoning and tool-use performance. Traders appear focused on upcoming releases and capability demonstrations expected before October 31, where factors such as agent autonomy, integration with enterprise tools, and third-party evaluations could shift positioning in this fast-evolving segment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Moonshot 41%
SpaceXAI 10.8%
Z.ai 9.3%
OpenAI 8%
$24,004 交易量
$24,004 交易量
2026-10-31
Moonshot
41%
SpaceXAI
11%
Z.ai
9%
OpenAI
8%
6%
微软
4%
阿里巴巴
4%
小米
5%
Anthropic
4%
DeepSeek
1%
Meta
1%
百度
1%
MiniMax
1%
英伟达
1%
亚马逊
1%
Mistral
1%
美团
1%
字节跳动
<1%
Moonshot 41%
SpaceXAI 10.8%
Z.ai 9.3%
OpenAI 8%
$24,004 交易量
$24,004 交易量
2026-10-31
Moonshot
$10,352 交易量
41%
SpaceXAI
$2,304 交易量
11%
Z.ai
$454 交易量
9%
OpenAI
$5,965 交易量
8%
$295 交易量
6%
微软
$257 交易量
4%
阿里巴巴
$669 交易量
4%
小米
$262 交易量
5%
Anthropic
$1,067 交易量
4%
DeepSeek
$342 交易量
1%
Meta
$234 交易量
1%
百度
$229 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$229 交易量
1%
英伟达
$189 交易量
1%
亚马逊
$206 交易量
1%
Mistral
$234 交易量
1%
美团
$229 交易量
1%
字节跳动
$488 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched 50% implied probabilities across numerous AI agent labs reflect intense competition and limited differentiation in capabilities as of late September 2026, with no single developer holding a decisive edge in agent benchmarks or real-world deployment. Moonshot's 40.5% standing stands out amid lower odds for established players like OpenAI and Google, driven by recent model updates and partnerships that have narrowed gaps in reasoning and tool-use performance. Traders appear focused on upcoming releases and capability demonstrations expected before October 31, where factors such as agent autonomy, integration with enterprise tools, and third-party evaluations could shift positioning in this fast-evolving segment.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
交易量
$24,004结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched 50% implied probabilities across numerous AI agent labs reflect intense competition and limited differentiation in capabilities as of late September 2026, with no single developer holding a decisive edge in agent benchmarks or real-world deployment. Moonshot's 40.5% standing stands out amid lower odds for established players like OpenAI and Google, driven by recent model updates and partnerships that have narrowed gaps in reasoning and tool-use performance. Traders appear focused on upcoming releases and capability demonstrations expected before October 31, where factors such as agent autonomy, integration with enterprise tools, and third-party evaluations could shift positioning in this fast-evolving segment.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$24,004结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETThe closely matched 50% implied probabilities across numerous AI agent labs reflect intense competition and limited differentiation in capabilities as of late September 2026, with no single developer holding a decisive edge in agent benchmarks or real-world deployment. Moonshot's 40.5% standing stands out amid lower odds for established players like OpenAI and Google, driven by recent model updates and partnerships that have narrowed gaps in reasoning and tool-use performance. Traders appear focused on upcoming releases and capability demonstrations expected before October 31, where factors such as agent autonomy, integration with enterprise tools, and third-party evaluations could shift positioning in this fast-evolving segment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题