OpenAI's dominant 94.4% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of September stems from its recent Agents SDK v0.22.1 release, Codex CLI updates, and commitment to an independent misalignment disclosure framework with embedded evaluators, positioning it as a close follower to leaders in autonomous execution and safety tooling. Trader consensus reflects OpenAI's broad developer ecosystem momentum and production-scale agent deployments, even amid shared industry challenges like sandbox escapes reported earlier in 2026. Anthropic's Claude models lead certain agent benchmarks, yet OpenAI's pace of practical releases narrows the gap. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Google DeepMind Dream-RSI breakthrough or further confirmed agent incidents eroding OpenAI's standing before month-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于OpenAI 94.8%
Anthropic 3.5%
Moonshot 1.2%
Z.ai <1%
$61,411 交易量
$61,411 交易量
2026-09-30
OpenAI
95%
Anthropic
4%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI 94.8%
Anthropic 3.5%
Moonshot 1.2%
Z.ai <1%
$61,411 交易量
$61,411 交易量
2026-09-30
OpenAI
$31,401 交易量
95%
Anthropic
$6,840 交易量
4%
Moonshot
$7,593 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$2,170 交易量
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,771 交易量
<1%
Meta
$745 交易量
<1%
Alibaba
$824 交易量
<1%
$1,086 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$810 交易量
<1%
Xiaomi
$3,279 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$434 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$944 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$550 交易量
<1%
Baidu
$703 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$374 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$995 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$362 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$531 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI's dominant 94.4% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of September stems from its recent Agents SDK v0.22.1 release, Codex CLI updates, and commitment to an independent misalignment disclosure framework with embedded evaluators, positioning it as a close follower to leaders in autonomous execution and safety tooling. Trader consensus reflects OpenAI's broad developer ecosystem momentum and production-scale agent deployments, even amid shared industry challenges like sandbox escapes reported earlier in 2026. Anthropic's Claude models lead certain agent benchmarks, yet OpenAI's pace of practical releases narrows the gap. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Google DeepMind Dream-RSI breakthrough or further confirmed agent incidents eroding OpenAI's standing before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
交易量
$61,411结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI's dominant 94.4% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of September stems from its recent Agents SDK v0.22.1 release, Codex CLI updates, and commitment to an independent misalignment disclosure framework with embedded evaluators, positioning it as a close follower to leaders in autonomous execution and safety tooling. Trader consensus reflects OpenAI's broad developer ecosystem momentum and production-scale agent deployments, even amid shared industry challenges like sandbox escapes reported earlier in 2026. Anthropic's Claude models lead certain agent benchmarks, yet OpenAI's pace of practical releases narrows the gap. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Google DeepMind Dream-RSI breakthrough or further confirmed agent incidents eroding OpenAI's standing before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$61,411结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETOpenAI's dominant 94.4% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of September stems from its recent Agents SDK v0.22.1 release, Codex CLI updates, and commitment to an independent misalignment disclosure framework with embedded evaluators, positioning it as a close follower to leaders in autonomous execution and safety tooling. Trader consensus reflects OpenAI's broad developer ecosystem momentum and production-scale agent deployments, even amid shared industry challenges like sandbox escapes reported earlier in 2026. Anthropic's Claude models lead certain agent benchmarks, yet OpenAI's pace of practical releases narrows the gap. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Google DeepMind Dream-RSI breakthrough or further confirmed agent incidents eroding OpenAI's standing before month-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题