Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to his long tenure since 2009, strong primary performance, and Oregon's established Democratic lean, where the party has won every Senate election since 2008 and carried recent presidential contests by double digits. Republican challenger David Brock Smith, a state senator who narrowly won a crowded primary, faces a significant fundraising gap and limited statewide name recognition. Election forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 vote. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major scandal, health event affecting Merkley, or an unexpected national political shift that boosts Republican turnout in this low-competition environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-02
杰夫·默克利（民主党）
97%
大卫·布罗克·史密斯（共和党）
2%
最新
最新
2026-11-02
杰夫·默克利（民主党）
$3,650 交易量
97%
大卫·布罗克·史密斯（共和党）
$3,076 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to his long tenure since 2009, strong primary performance, and Oregon's established Democratic lean, where the party has won every Senate election since 2008 and carried recent presidential contests by double digits. Republican challenger David Brock Smith, a state senator who narrowly won a crowded primary, faces a significant fundraising gap and limited statewide name recognition. Election forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 vote. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major scandal, health event affecting Merkley, or an unexpected national political shift that boosts Republican turnout in this low-competition environment.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$6,726结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to his long tenure since 2009, strong primary performance, and Oregon's established Democratic lean, where the party has won every Senate election since 2008 and carried recent presidential contests by double digits. Republican challenger David Brock Smith, a state senator who narrowly won a crowded primary, faces a significant fundraising gap and limited statewide name recognition. Election forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 vote. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major scandal, health event affecting Merkley, or an unexpected national political shift that boosts Republican turnout in this low-competition environment.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$6,726结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETIncumbent Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley holds a commanding position in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to his long tenure since 2009, strong primary performance, and Oregon's established Democratic lean, where the party has won every Senate election since 2008 and carried recent presidential contests by double digits. Republican challenger David Brock Smith, a state senator who narrowly won a crowded primary, faces a significant fundraising gap and limited statewide name recognition. Election forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 vote. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major scandal, health event affecting Merkley, or an unexpected national political shift that boosts Republican turnout in this low-competition environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题