Idaho's deeply Republican electorate and structural advantages for the incumbent continue to anchor trader expectations for Jim Risch's reelection. The three-term senator won his May primary with over 67 percent of the vote and benefits from seniority on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, recent endorsements from state Republican figures including former governor Butch Otter, and consistent polling leads of 18 points or more against independent challenger Todd Achilles. The Democratic nominee withdrew in July after raising limited funds, leaving Achilles—who draws some crossover support but lacks major-party infrastructure—as the primary opponent in a state where Republicans have held the seat since 1974. With the November 3 general election approaching, scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited to low-probability events such as a significant late scandal or health development involving Risch.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于吉姆·里施（共和党） 95.6%
民主党 3.1%
托德·阿基里斯（无党派） 1.1%
$33,326 交易量
$33,326 交易量
2026-11-02
吉姆·里施（共和党）
96%
民主党
3%
托德·阿基里斯（无党派）
1%
吉姆·里施（共和党） 95.6%
民主党 3.1%
托德·阿基里斯（无党派） 1.1%
$33,326 交易量
$33,326 交易量
2026-11-02
吉姆·里施（共和党）
$18,749 交易量
96%
民主党
$14,402 交易量
3%
托德·阿基里斯（无党派）
$175 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Idaho's deeply Republican electorate and structural advantages for the incumbent continue to anchor trader expectations for Jim Risch's reelection. The three-term senator won his May primary with over 67 percent of the vote and benefits from seniority on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, recent endorsements from state Republican figures including former governor Butch Otter, and consistent polling leads of 18 points or more against independent challenger Todd Achilles. The Democratic nominee withdrew in July after raising limited funds, leaving Achilles—who draws some crossover support but lacks major-party infrastructure—as the primary opponent in a state where Republicans have held the seat since 1974. With the November 3 general election approaching, scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited to low-probability events such as a significant late scandal or health development involving Risch.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$33,326结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Idaho's deeply Republican electorate and structural advantages for the incumbent continue to anchor trader expectations for Jim Risch's reelection. The three-term senator won his May primary with over 67 percent of the vote and benefits from seniority on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, recent endorsements from state Republican figures including former governor Butch Otter, and consistent polling leads of 18 points or more against independent challenger Todd Achilles. The Democratic nominee withdrew in July after raising limited funds, leaving Achilles—who draws some crossover support but lacks major-party infrastructure—as the primary opponent in a state where Republicans have held the seat since 1974. With the November 3 general election approaching, scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited to low-probability events such as a significant late scandal or health development involving Risch.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$33,326结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETIdaho's deeply Republican electorate and structural advantages for the incumbent continue to anchor trader expectations for Jim Risch's reelection. The three-term senator won his May primary with over 67 percent of the vote and benefits from seniority on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, recent endorsements from state Republican figures including former governor Butch Otter, and consistent polling leads of 18 points or more against independent challenger Todd Achilles. The Democratic nominee withdrew in July after raising limited funds, leaving Achilles—who draws some crossover support but lacks major-party infrastructure—as the primary opponent in a state where Republicans have held the seat since 1974. With the November 3 general election approaching, scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited to low-probability events such as a significant late scandal or health development involving Risch.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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