Mary Peltola leads the 2026 Alaska Senate race at 67.5% on Polymarket, ahead of incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan at 33.5%, reflecting trader assessment of a competitive contest shaped by the August 18 nonpartisan primary results and subsequent polling. Peltola captured 49.5% in the primary to Sullivan’s 41.4%, advancing alongside two other Republicans in Alaska’s top-four system. Late August surveys, including Alaska Survey Research, showed her narrowly ahead or tied, while earlier data indicated similar closeness. Key influences include Peltola’s fundraising edge, emphasis on fisheries and cost-of-living issues, and the general election’s ranked-choice voting dynamics, which have historically aided cross-aisle coalitions in the state. A September 13 debate highlighted fisheries policy differences, with minor candidates remaining negligible factors. The race carries toss-up ratings from outlets such as Cook Political Report.