Google leads the #3 AI lab market with an 81.5% implied probability due to its recent Gemini 3.8 Flash updates and sustained benchmark gains in controllable generation under style control criteria on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard. Early September clustered releases from Google, Meta, Anthropic, and OpenAI highlighted Gemini's advantages in prompt adherence, multi-reference composition, and stylistic editing, widening its edge over competitors in the narrow margins separating top labs. Meta trails at 12% on open-weight momentum and developer ecosystem strength, while OpenAI sits at just 2.6% amid focus on other capabilities. With resolution on September 30, traders are weighting verified performance data over announcements as the window narrows.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于谷歌 81%
Meta 13%
OpenAI 2.6%
Moonshot 1.6%
$113,112 交易量
$113,112 交易量
2026-09-30
谷歌
81%
Meta
13%
OpenAI
3%
Moonshot
2%
阿里巴巴
1%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
百度
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
腾讯
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
小米
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
美团
<1%
Mistral
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
英伟达
<1%
StepFun
<1%
微软
<1%
谷歌 81%
Meta 13%
OpenAI 2.6%
Moonshot 1.6%
$113,112 交易量
$113,112 交易量
2026-09-30
谷歌
$20,969 交易量
81%
Meta
$29,225 交易量
13%
OpenAI
$4,822 交易量
3%
Moonshot
$3,645 交易量
2%
阿里巴巴
$9,933 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$2,459 交易量
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,935 交易量
1%
百度
$2,029 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$2,692 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,337 交易量
<1%
腾讯
$1,902 交易量
<1%
Anthropic
$21,169 交易量
<1%
小米
$1,149 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$1,514 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$1,992 交易量
<1%
美团
$799 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$1,570 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$480 交易量
<1%
英伟达
$659 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$700 交易量
<1%
微软
$1,134 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google leads the #3 AI lab market with an 81.5% implied probability due to its recent Gemini 3.8 Flash updates and sustained benchmark gains in controllable generation under style control criteria on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard. Early September clustered releases from Google, Meta, Anthropic, and OpenAI highlighted Gemini's advantages in prompt adherence, multi-reference composition, and stylistic editing, widening its edge over competitors in the narrow margins separating top labs. Meta trails at 12% on open-weight momentum and developer ecosystem strength, while OpenAI sits at just 2.6% amid focus on other capabilities. With resolution on September 30, traders are weighting verified performance data over announcements as the window narrows.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$113,112结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google leads the #3 AI lab market with an 81.5% implied probability due to its recent Gemini 3.8 Flash updates and sustained benchmark gains in controllable generation under style control criteria on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard. Early September clustered releases from Google, Meta, Anthropic, and OpenAI highlighted Gemini's advantages in prompt adherence, multi-reference composition, and stylistic editing, widening its edge over competitors in the narrow margins separating top labs. Meta trails at 12% on open-weight momentum and developer ecosystem strength, while OpenAI sits at just 2.6% amid focus on other capabilities. With resolution on September 30, traders are weighting verified performance data over announcements as the window narrows.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$113,112结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETGoogle leads the #3 AI lab market with an 81.5% implied probability due to its recent Gemini 3.8 Flash updates and sustained benchmark gains in controllable generation under style control criteria on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard. Early September clustered releases from Google, Meta, Anthropic, and OpenAI highlighted Gemini's advantages in prompt adherence, multi-reference composition, and stylistic editing, widening its edge over competitors in the narrow margins separating top labs. Meta trails at 12% on open-weight momentum and developer ecosystem strength, while OpenAI sits at just 2.6% amid focus on other capabilities. With resolution on September 30, traders are weighting verified performance data over announcements as the window narrows.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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