Recent strong August payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above expectations, combined with hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and surging oil prices above $100 per barrel, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.83–4.85% as of September 9—its highest since late 2023. Traders now price roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, while the Treasury’s $6 billion buyback disappointed expectations for larger support. With resilient labor markets, elevated inflation readings, and key CPI data due shortly, market-implied odds favor limited downside for yields this month absent a sharp reversal in growth or energy prices.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
$18,802 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
Below 4.76%
52%
Below 4.73%
32%
Below 4.70%
13%
Below 4.67%
24%
Below 4.64%
11%
Below 4.61%
5%
Below 4.56%
4%
Below 4.51%
5%
Below 4.45%
3%
$18,802 KL.
Below 4.76%
$7,555 KL.
52%
Below 4.73%
$1,122 KL.
32%
Below 4.70%
$3,121 KL.
13%
Below 4.67%
$194 KL.
24%
Below 4.64%
$1,635 KL.
11%
Below 4.61%
$2,027 KL.
5%
Below 4.56%
$763 KL.
4%
Below 4.51%
$436 KL.
5%
Below 4.45%
$1,950 KL.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strong August payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above expectations, combined with hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and surging oil prices above $100 per barrel, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.83–4.85% as of September 9—its highest since late 2023. Traders now price roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, while the Treasury’s $6 billion buyback disappointed expectations for larger support. With resilient labor markets, elevated inflation readings, and key CPI data due shortly, market-implied odds favor limited downside for yields this month absent a sharp reversal in growth or energy prices.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Thị trường mở: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Khối lượng
$18,802Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strong August payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above expectations, combined with hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and surging oil prices above $100 per barrel, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.83–4.85% as of September 9—its highest since late 2023. Traders now price roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, while the Treasury’s $6 billion buyback disappointed expectations for larger support. With resilient labor markets, elevated inflation readings, and key CPI data due shortly, market-implied odds favor limited downside for yields this month absent a sharp reversal in growth or energy prices.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Khối lượng
$18,802Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Recent strong August payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above expectations, combined with hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and surging oil prices above $100 per barrel, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.83–4.85% as of September 9—its highest since late 2023. Traders now price roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, while the Treasury’s $6 billion buyback disappointed expectations for larger support. With resilient labor markets, elevated inflation readings, and key CPI data due shortly, market-implied odds favor limited downside for yields this month absent a sharp reversal in growth or energy prices.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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