Persistent inflation pressures, with August CPI rising more than expected to 3.4% year-over-year and earlier PCE readings hitting 4.1%, combined with resilient labor market data showing strong August payrolls, have driven the 89% market-implied probability of at least one Fed rate hike in 2026. New Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish communications, including emphasis that "inflation is a choice," have reinforced trader expectations for policy tightening, with futures pricing in a high likelihood of a 25 basis point move at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and additional hikes later in the year. This consensus reflects skin-in-the-game positioning amid elevated core inflation readings above the 2% target and revised dot plot signals, though upcoming data releases could still shift the path.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFed sẽ tăng lãi suất vào năm 2026?
Fed sẽ tăng lãi suất vào năm 2026?
Có
88% khả năng
$9,170,358 KL.
$9,170,358 KL.
Dec 8, 2026
Có
88% khả năng
$9,170,358 KL.
$9,170,358 KL.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures, with August CPI rising more than expected to 3.4% year-over-year and earlier PCE readings hitting 4.1%, combined with resilient labor market data showing strong August payrolls, have driven the 89% market-implied probability of at least one Fed rate hike in 2026. New Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish communications, including emphasis that "inflation is a choice," have reinforced trader expectations for policy tightening, with futures pricing in a high likelihood of a 25 basis point move at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and additional hikes later in the year. This consensus reflects skin-in-the-game positioning amid elevated core inflation readings above the 2% target and revised dot plot signals, though upcoming data releases could still shift the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$9,170,358Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures, with August CPI rising more than expected to 3.4% year-over-year and earlier PCE readings hitting 4.1%, combined with resilient labor market data showing strong August payrolls, have driven the 89% market-implied probability of at least one Fed rate hike in 2026. New Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish communications, including emphasis that "inflation is a choice," have reinforced trader expectations for policy tightening, with futures pricing in a high likelihood of a 25 basis point move at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and additional hikes later in the year. This consensus reflects skin-in-the-game positioning amid elevated core inflation readings above the 2% target and revised dot plot signals, though upcoming data releases could still shift the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$9,170,358Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures, with August CPI rising more than expected to 3.4% year-over-year and earlier PCE readings hitting 4.1%, combined with resilient labor market data showing strong August payrolls, have driven the 89% market-implied probability of at least one Fed rate hike in 2026. New Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish communications, including emphasis that "inflation is a choice," have reinforced trader expectations for policy tightening, with futures pricing in a high likelihood of a 25 basis point move at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and additional hikes later in the year. This consensus reflects skin-in-the-game positioning amid elevated core inflation readings above the 2% target and revised dot plot signals, though upcoming data releases could still shift the path.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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