The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.80–4.85% as of September 9, 2026, has risen on hawkish Federal Reserve communications and sticky inflation readings, with PCE near 3.7%. Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and persistent energy-driven price pressures from geopolitical tensions have shifted market-implied odds toward fewer or no rate cuts through year-end, while higher term premiums reflect fiscal deficits, elevated Treasury supply, and AI-related investment demand supporting real rates. Resilient growth and a stable labor market have further anchored expectations for a higher neutral policy rate. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI and PPI releases, and any Middle East developments that could alter inflation trajectories. These dynamics imply limited scope for substantial yield declines before 2027 absent clearer disinflation signals.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
$247,781 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
3.9%
8%
3.8%
5%
3.7%
5%
3.6%
5%
3.5%
5%
3.0%
3%
2.0%
2%
1.0%
2%
$247,781 KL.
3.9%
$49,583 KL.
8%
3.8%
$50,664 KL.
5%
3.7%
$28,035 KL.
5%
3.6%
$6,185 KL.
5%
3.5%
$39,256 KL.
5%
3.0%
$1,162 KL.
3%
2.0%
$564 KL.
2%
1.0%
$40,572 KL.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.80–4.85% as of September 9, 2026, has risen on hawkish Federal Reserve communications and sticky inflation readings, with PCE near 3.7%. Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and persistent energy-driven price pressures from geopolitical tensions have shifted market-implied odds toward fewer or no rate cuts through year-end, while higher term premiums reflect fiscal deficits, elevated Treasury supply, and AI-related investment demand supporting real rates. Resilient growth and a stable labor market have further anchored expectations for a higher neutral policy rate. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI and PPI releases, and any Middle East developments that could alter inflation trajectories. These dynamics imply limited scope for substantial yield declines before 2027 absent clearer disinflation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Khối lượng
$247,781Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.80–4.85% as of September 9, 2026, has risen on hawkish Federal Reserve communications and sticky inflation readings, with PCE near 3.7%. Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and persistent energy-driven price pressures from geopolitical tensions have shifted market-implied odds toward fewer or no rate cuts through year-end, while higher term premiums reflect fiscal deficits, elevated Treasury supply, and AI-related investment demand supporting real rates. Resilient growth and a stable labor market have further anchored expectations for a higher neutral policy rate. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI and PPI releases, and any Middle East developments that could alter inflation trajectories. These dynamics imply limited scope for substantial yield declines before 2027 absent clearer disinflation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Khối lượng
$247,781Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.80–4.85% as of September 9, 2026, has risen on hawkish Federal Reserve communications and sticky inflation readings, with PCE near 3.7%. Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and persistent energy-driven price pressures from geopolitical tensions have shifted market-implied odds toward fewer or no rate cuts through year-end, while higher term premiums reflect fiscal deficits, elevated Treasury supply, and AI-related investment demand supporting real rates. Resilient growth and a stable labor market have further anchored expectations for a higher neutral policy rate. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI and PPI releases, and any Middle East developments that could alter inflation trajectories. These dynamics imply limited scope for substantial yield declines before 2027 absent clearer disinflation signals.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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