Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, including elevated PCE inflation near 3.7% and reduced easing expectations, have pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to approximately 5.28-5.30% as of September 9, 2026—its highest levels in nearly two decades. Sticky core inflation, geopolitical tensions elevating oil prices, heavy Treasury and corporate issuance, and a rising term premium have reinforced upward pressure on long-term rates despite resilient growth and AI-driven investment demand. Market-implied odds now price in limited further Fed easing this year, capping downside potential for yields before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and PPI releases, and Treasury auctions that could test whether yields sustain above 5.2% or ease on softer data.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
MỚI
Dec 30, 2026
Below 5.20%
80%
Below 5.15%
72%
Below 5.10%
63%
Below 5.05%
54%
Below 5.00%
46%
Below 4.95%
41%
Below 4.90%
35%
Below 4.80%
22%
Below 4.60%
16%
$121 KL.
Below 5.20%
$0 KL.
80%
Below 5.15%
$0 KL.
72%
Below 5.10%
$60 KL.
63%
Below 5.05%
$0 KL.
54%
Below 5.00%
$0 KL.
46%
Below 4.95%
$0 KL.
41%
Below 4.90%
$61 KL.
35%
Below 4.80%
$0 KL.
22%
Below 4.60%
$0 KL.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, including elevated PCE inflation near 3.7% and reduced easing expectations, have pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to approximately 5.28-5.30% as of September 9, 2026—its highest levels in nearly two decades. Sticky core inflation, geopolitical tensions elevating oil prices, heavy Treasury and corporate issuance, and a rising term premium have reinforced upward pressure on long-term rates despite resilient growth and AI-driven investment demand. Market-implied odds now price in limited further Fed easing this year, capping downside potential for yields before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and PPI releases, and Treasury auctions that could test whether yields sustain above 5.2% or ease on softer data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Thị trường mở: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Khối lượng
$121Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, including elevated PCE inflation near 3.7% and reduced easing expectations, have pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to approximately 5.28-5.30% as of September 9, 2026—its highest levels in nearly two decades. Sticky core inflation, geopolitical tensions elevating oil prices, heavy Treasury and corporate issuance, and a rising term premium have reinforced upward pressure on long-term rates despite resilient growth and AI-driven investment demand. Market-implied odds now price in limited further Fed easing this year, capping downside potential for yields before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and PPI releases, and Treasury auctions that could test whether yields sustain above 5.2% or ease on softer data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Khối lượng
$121Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, including elevated PCE inflation near 3.7% and reduced easing expectations, have pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to approximately 5.28-5.30% as of September 9, 2026—its highest levels in nearly two decades. Sticky core inflation, geopolitical tensions elevating oil prices, heavy Treasury and corporate issuance, and a rising term premium have reinforced upward pressure on long-term rates despite resilient growth and AI-driven investment demand. Market-implied odds now price in limited further Fed easing this year, capping downside potential for yields before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and PPI releases, and Treasury auctions that could test whether yields sustain above 5.2% or ease on softer data.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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