Recent inflation data showing August CPI at 3.4% alongside surging oil prices above $108 per barrel have reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting, driving 5-year Treasury yields higher to approximately 4.80% as of September 15. Resilient economic growth, elevated term premiums from fiscal deficits and heavy corporate borrowing tied to AI infrastructure, and a widening gap between market-implied policy paths and prior rate-cut assumptions have supported this move. With the FOMC decision and subsequent communications as the immediate catalyst, any hawkish signals could further anchor yields near current levels, while softer inflation or growth surprises might allow testing of earlier September lows around 4.5%.