Recent U.S. inflation data and labor market resilience have anchored trader expectations for the October FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds heavily favoring no change at 67.5%. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.1%, signaling steady but not overheating conditions that reduce urgency for immediate tightening. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and some upward revisions in rate forecasts have supported the 30.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike, yet the majority of economist polls continue to project steady policy through year-end given the Fed's data-dependent stance. The September 15-16 meeting and upcoming August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the October path, as traders weigh inflation's trajectory against the current federal funds rate range of 3.50-3.75%.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 68%
25 bps increase 31%
25 bps decrease 3.6%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,418,070 KL.
$1,418,070 KL.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
68%
25 bps increase
31%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 68%
25 bps increase 31%
25 bps decrease 3.6%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,418,070 KL.
$1,418,070 KL.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$236,585 KL.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$545,389 KL.
4%
No change
$223,787 KL.
68%
25 bps increase
$254,448 KL.
31%
50+ bps increase
$157,861 KL.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data and labor market resilience have anchored trader expectations for the October FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds heavily favoring no change at 67.5%. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.1%, signaling steady but not overheating conditions that reduce urgency for immediate tightening. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and some upward revisions in rate forecasts have supported the 30.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike, yet the majority of economist polls continue to project steady policy through year-end given the Fed's data-dependent stance. The September 15-16 meeting and upcoming August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the October path, as traders weigh inflation's trajectory against the current federal funds rate range of 3.50-3.75%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,418,070Ngày kết thúc
Oct 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data and labor market resilience have anchored trader expectations for the October FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds heavily favoring no change at 67.5%. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.1%, signaling steady but not overheating conditions that reduce urgency for immediate tightening. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and some upward revisions in rate forecasts have supported the 30.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike, yet the majority of economist polls continue to project steady policy through year-end given the Fed's data-dependent stance. The September 15-16 meeting and upcoming August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the October path, as traders weigh inflation's trajectory against the current federal funds rate range of 3.50-3.75%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$1,418,070Ngày kết thúc
Oct 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. inflation data and labor market resilience have anchored trader expectations for the October FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds heavily favoring no change at 67.5%. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.1%, signaling steady but not overheating conditions that reduce urgency for immediate tightening. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and some upward revisions in rate forecasts have supported the 30.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike, yet the majority of economist polls continue to project steady policy through year-end given the Fed's data-dependent stance. The September 15-16 meeting and upcoming August CPI release on September 11 represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the October path, as traders weigh inflation's trajectory against the current federal funds rate range of 3.50-3.75%.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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