Traders see the June-through-September FOMC cycle as closely balanced, with the 53.5% “Other” share reflecting meaningful odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike alongside the 46.5% priced for three consecutive holds at the 3.50–3.75% target range. Persistent inflation above the 2% goal, highlighted by June PCE prints and revised 2026 projections near 3.6%, has kept policy restrictive despite a stable labor market near 4.1–4.3% unemployment. The July 29 decision to hold drew three dissents favoring a hike, underscoring internal divisions under Chair Kevin Warsh and removing prior easing signals. With the September 15–16 meeting just days away, fresh inflation and payroll data will determine whether the committee maintains the pause path or shifts toward tightening, leaving limited room for cuts in either scenario.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Other 54%
Pause–Pause–Pause 47%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$842,754 KL.
$842,754 KL.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
54%
Other 54%
Pause–Pause–Pause 47%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$842,754 KL.
$842,754 KL.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$326,527 KL.
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$100,494 KL.
1%
Other
$359,857 KL.
54%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders see the June-through-September FOMC cycle as closely balanced, with the 53.5% “Other” share reflecting meaningful odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike alongside the 46.5% priced for three consecutive holds at the 3.50–3.75% target range. Persistent inflation above the 2% goal, highlighted by June PCE prints and revised 2026 projections near 3.6%, has kept policy restrictive despite a stable labor market near 4.1–4.3% unemployment. The July 29 decision to hold drew three dissents favoring a hike, underscoring internal divisions under Chair Kevin Warsh and removing prior easing signals. With the September 15–16 meeting just days away, fresh inflation and payroll data will determine whether the committee maintains the pause path or shifts toward tightening, leaving limited room for cuts in either scenario.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Khối lượng
$842,754Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders see the June-through-September FOMC cycle as closely balanced, with the 53.5% “Other” share reflecting meaningful odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike alongside the 46.5% priced for three consecutive holds at the 3.50–3.75% target range. Persistent inflation above the 2% goal, highlighted by June PCE prints and revised 2026 projections near 3.6%, has kept policy restrictive despite a stable labor market near 4.1–4.3% unemployment. The July 29 decision to hold drew three dissents favoring a hike, underscoring internal divisions under Chair Kevin Warsh and removing prior easing signals. With the September 15–16 meeting just days away, fresh inflation and payroll data will determine whether the committee maintains the pause path or shifts toward tightening, leaving limited room for cuts in either scenario.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$842,754Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the June-through-September FOMC cycle as closely balanced, with the 53.5% “Other” share reflecting meaningful odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike alongside the 46.5% priced for three consecutive holds at the 3.50–3.75% target range. Persistent inflation above the 2% goal, highlighted by June PCE prints and revised 2026 projections near 3.6%, has kept policy restrictive despite a stable labor market near 4.1–4.3% unemployment. The July 29 decision to hold drew three dissents favoring a hike, underscoring internal divisions under Chair Kevin Warsh and removing prior easing signals. With the September 15–16 meeting just days away, fresh inflation and payroll data will determine whether the committee maintains the pause path or shifts toward tightening, leaving limited room for cuts in either scenario.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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