Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district due to the seat’s consistent R+11 partisan voter index, its reliable Republican performance in recent presidential and congressional voting, and Kelly’s long tenure since 2011. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the May 2026 primaries, with no subsequent developments such as competitive polling, major endorsements, or fundraising surges for Democrat Justin Wagner to alter the outlook. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 91.5% for Kelly reflects these structural and incumbency advantages, while scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national partisan shift, late-cycle scandals, or unexpected health or campaign disruptions before the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоPA-16 House Election Winner
PA-16 House Election Winner
$40,158 Обс.
$40,158 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Mike Kelly (R)
92%
Justin Wagner (D)
6%
$40,158 Обс.
$40,158 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Mike Kelly (R)
$23,846 Обс.
92%
Justin Wagner (D)
$16,312 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district due to the seat’s consistent R+11 partisan voter index, its reliable Republican performance in recent presidential and congressional voting, and Kelly’s long tenure since 2011. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the May 2026 primaries, with no subsequent developments such as competitive polling, major endorsements, or fundraising surges for Democrat Justin Wagner to alter the outlook. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 91.5% for Kelly reflects these structural and incumbency advantages, while scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national partisan shift, late-cycle scandals, or unexpected health or campaign disruptions before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Обсяг
$40,158Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district due to the seat’s consistent R+11 partisan voter index, its reliable Republican performance in recent presidential and congressional voting, and Kelly’s long tenure since 2011. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the May 2026 primaries, with no subsequent developments such as competitive polling, major endorsements, or fundraising surges for Democrat Justin Wagner to alter the outlook. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 91.5% for Kelly reflects these structural and incumbency advantages, while scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national partisan shift, late-cycle scandals, or unexpected health or campaign disruptions before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$40,158Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district due to the seat’s consistent R+11 partisan voter index, its reliable Republican performance in recent presidential and congressional voting, and Kelly’s long tenure since 2011. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the May 2026 primaries, with no subsequent developments such as competitive polling, major endorsements, or fundraising surges for Democrat Justin Wagner to alter the outlook. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 91.5% for Kelly reflects these structural and incumbency advantages, while scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national partisan shift, late-cycle scandals, or unexpected health or campaign disruptions before the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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