Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 House race due to her 2024 victory flipping the seat, a sizable Democratic voter registration advantage in Nassau County, and consistent Lean or Tilt Democratic ratings from forecasters. Jeanine Driscoll secured the Republican nomination after a June primary but trails significantly in fundraising and faces structural headwinds in a district that has alternated parties in recent cycles. The trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these fundamentals, though scenarios such as unusually high Republican turnout, major late developments on taxes or affordability, or national political shifts could still narrow the gap before November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNY-04 House Election Winner
NY-04 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Laura Gillen (D)
93%
Jeanine Driscoll (R)
4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Laura Gillen (D)
$3,559 Обс.
93%
Jeanine Driscoll (R)
$2,047 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 House race due to her 2024 victory flipping the seat, a sizable Democratic voter registration advantage in Nassau County, and consistent Lean or Tilt Democratic ratings from forecasters. Jeanine Driscoll secured the Republican nomination after a June primary but trails significantly in fundraising and faces structural headwinds in a district that has alternated parties in recent cycles. The trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these fundamentals, though scenarios such as unusually high Republican turnout, major late developments on taxes or affordability, or national political shifts could still narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Обсяг
$5,605Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 House race due to her 2024 victory flipping the seat, a sizable Democratic voter registration advantage in Nassau County, and consistent Lean or Tilt Democratic ratings from forecasters. Jeanine Driscoll secured the Republican nomination after a June primary but trails significantly in fundraising and faces structural headwinds in a district that has alternated parties in recent cycles. The trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these fundamentals, though scenarios such as unusually high Republican turnout, major late developments on taxes or affordability, or national political shifts could still narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$5,605Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 House race due to her 2024 victory flipping the seat, a sizable Democratic voter registration advantage in Nassau County, and consistent Lean or Tilt Democratic ratings from forecasters. Jeanine Driscoll secured the Republican nomination after a June primary but trails significantly in fundraising and faces structural headwinds in a district that has alternated parties in recent cycles. The trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these fundamentals, though scenarios such as unusually high Republican turnout, major late developments on taxes or affordability, or national political shifts could still narrow the gap before November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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