Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, prevailing over a crowded field that included fellow Assemblymember Alex Bores and other contenders. The Manhattan-based seat, long held by retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, carries a strong Democratic partisan lean reflected in registration advantages exceeding six-to-one and consistent historical results. Traders’ consensus around Lasher at 97.5% aligns with the district’s structural profile and Lasher’s endorsements from party leaders and outside support. Caroline Shinkle, the Republican nominee, faces steep barriers in this environment. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national swing could theoretically narrow the gap, though such shifts remain uncommon in districts of this composition ahead of the November general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$32,897 Обс.
$32,897 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Micah Lasher (D)
98%
Caroline Shinkle (R)
<1%
$32,897 Обс.
$32,897 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Micah Lasher (D)
$17,262 Обс.
98%
Caroline Shinkle (R)
$15,635 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, prevailing over a crowded field that included fellow Assemblymember Alex Bores and other contenders. The Manhattan-based seat, long held by retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, carries a strong Democratic partisan lean reflected in registration advantages exceeding six-to-one and consistent historical results. Traders’ consensus around Lasher at 97.5% aligns with the district’s structural profile and Lasher’s endorsements from party leaders and outside support. Caroline Shinkle, the Republican nominee, faces steep barriers in this environment. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national swing could theoretically narrow the gap, though such shifts remain uncommon in districts of this composition ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Обсяг
$32,897Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, prevailing over a crowded field that included fellow Assemblymember Alex Bores and other contenders. The Manhattan-based seat, long held by retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, carries a strong Democratic partisan lean reflected in registration advantages exceeding six-to-one and consistent historical results. Traders’ consensus around Lasher at 97.5% aligns with the district’s structural profile and Lasher’s endorsements from party leaders and outside support. Caroline Shinkle, the Republican nominee, faces steep barriers in this environment. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national swing could theoretically narrow the gap, though such shifts remain uncommon in districts of this composition ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$32,897Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, prevailing over a crowded field that included fellow Assemblymember Alex Bores and other contenders. The Manhattan-based seat, long held by retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, carries a strong Democratic partisan lean reflected in registration advantages exceeding six-to-one and consistent historical results. Traders’ consensus around Lasher at 97.5% aligns with the district’s structural profile and Lasher’s endorsements from party leaders and outside support. Caroline Shinkle, the Republican nominee, faces steep barriers in this environment. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national swing could theoretically narrow the gap, though such shifts remain uncommon in districts of this composition ahead of the November general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання