Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking reelection, holds overwhelming trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability, driven by recent polling trends showing him leading or expanding his advantage over Valmir de Francisquinho of the Republicanos. August and mid-2026 surveys, including those from Quaest and CTAS, placed Fábio ahead by double-digit margins in valid-vote scenarios, reflecting incumbency benefits, coalition-building, and campaign focus on education and infrastructure priorities ahead of the October 4 first round. Valmir, at 10.5%, remains the main opposition contender but trails consistently in late-cycle data, with minor candidates like Ricardo Marques, Emanuel Cacho, and others registering negligible support. The first-round timeline and absence of major late disruptions reinforce the current positioning among traders.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFábio 90%
Valmir de Francisquinho 11%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$19,773 ปริมาณ
$19,773 ปริมาณ
Oct 4, 2026
Fábio
90%
Valmir de Francisquinho
11%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
<1%
Emanuel Cacho
<1%
Dr. Helton
<1%
Ricardo Marques
<1%
Fábio 90%
Valmir de Francisquinho 11%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$19,773 ปริมาณ
$19,773 ปริมาณ
Oct 4, 2026
Fábio
$15,659 ปริมาณ
90%
Valmir de Francisquinho
$1,717 ปริมาณ
11%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
$637 ปริมาณ
<1%
Emanuel Cacho
$618 ปริมาณ
<1%
Dr. Helton
$699 ปริมาณ
<1%
Ricardo Marques
$443 ปริมาณ
<1%
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking reelection, holds overwhelming trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability, driven by recent polling trends showing him leading or expanding his advantage over Valmir de Francisquinho of the Republicanos. August and mid-2026 surveys, including those from Quaest and CTAS, placed Fábio ahead by double-digit margins in valid-vote scenarios, reflecting incumbency benefits, coalition-building, and campaign focus on education and infrastructure priorities ahead of the October 4 first round. Valmir, at 10.5%, remains the main opposition contender but trails consistently in late-cycle data, with minor candidates like Ricardo Marques, Emanuel Cacho, and others registering negligible support. The first-round timeline and absence of major late disruptions reinforce the current positioning among traders.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$19,773วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking reelection, holds overwhelming trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability, driven by recent polling trends showing him leading or expanding his advantage over Valmir de Francisquinho of the Republicanos. August and mid-2026 surveys, including those from Quaest and CTAS, placed Fábio ahead by double-digit margins in valid-vote scenarios, reflecting incumbency benefits, coalition-building, and campaign focus on education and infrastructure priorities ahead of the October 4 first round. Valmir, at 10.5%, remains the main opposition contender but trails consistently in late-cycle data, with minor candidates like Ricardo Marques, Emanuel Cacho, and others registering negligible support. The first-round timeline and absence of major late disruptions reinforce the current positioning among traders.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$19,773วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking reelection, holds overwhelming trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability, driven by recent polling trends showing him leading or expanding his advantage over Valmir de Francisquinho of the Republicanos. August and mid-2026 surveys, including those from Quaest and CTAS, placed Fábio ahead by double-digit margins in valid-vote scenarios, reflecting incumbency benefits, coalition-building, and campaign focus on education and infrastructure priorities ahead of the October 4 first round. Valmir, at 10.5%, remains the main opposition contender but trails consistently in late-cycle data, with minor candidates like Ricardo Marques, Emanuel Cacho, and others registering negligible support. The first-round timeline and absence of major late disruptions reinforce the current positioning among traders.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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