Sergio Moro (PL) holds an 83.5% implied probability of winning the Paraná gubernatorial race on October 4, 2026, with a possible runoff on October 25, reflecting sustained leads in multiple late-August and early-September polls showing him at 35–45% in the first round. He maintains double-digit advantages over Requião Filho (PDT) and Sandro Alex (PSD), the latter backed by term-limited incumbent Ratinho Júnior (PSD) whose administration enjoys high approval. Recent catalysts include the PL's August convention formalizing Moro's candidacy with Edson Vasconcelos as running mate, alongside ongoing debates and the start of free electoral broadcasts. Sandro Alex at 15.5% benefits from state resources and Rafael Greca's vice slot, yet polling gaps have not narrowed meaningfully. Lower probabilities for other listed candidates align with their sub-2% shares across surveys. Trader consensus prices these dynamics ahead of the first-round vote.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วParaná Governor Election Winner
Paraná Governor Election Winner
Sergio Moro 84%
Sandro Alex 16%
Alexandre Curi <1%
Enio Verri <1%
$139,531 ปริมาณ
$139,531 ปริมาณ
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Moro
84%
Sandro Alex
16%
Alexandre Curi
<1%
Enio Verri
<1%
Luiz França
<1%
Rafael Greca
<1%
Requião Filho
<1%
Guto Silva
<1%
Beto Richa
<1%
Sergio Moro 84%
Sandro Alex 16%
Alexandre Curi <1%
Enio Verri <1%
$139,531 ปริมาณ
$139,531 ปริมาณ
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Moro
$91,488 ปริมาณ
84%
Sandro Alex
$13,651 ปริมาณ
16%
Alexandre Curi
$4,452 ปริมาณ
<1%
Enio Verri
$3,396 ปริมาณ
<1%
Luiz França
$2,900 ปริมาณ
<1%
Rafael Greca
$3,403 ปริมาณ
<1%
Requião Filho
$14,593 ปริมาณ
<1%
Guto Silva
$3,022 ปริมาณ
<1%
Beto Richa
$2,625 ปริมาณ
<1%
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro (PL) holds an 83.5% implied probability of winning the Paraná gubernatorial race on October 4, 2026, with a possible runoff on October 25, reflecting sustained leads in multiple late-August and early-September polls showing him at 35–45% in the first round. He maintains double-digit advantages over Requião Filho (PDT) and Sandro Alex (PSD), the latter backed by term-limited incumbent Ratinho Júnior (PSD) whose administration enjoys high approval. Recent catalysts include the PL's August convention formalizing Moro's candidacy with Edson Vasconcelos as running mate, alongside ongoing debates and the start of free electoral broadcasts. Sandro Alex at 15.5% benefits from state resources and Rafael Greca's vice slot, yet polling gaps have not narrowed meaningfully. Lower probabilities for other listed candidates align with their sub-2% shares across surveys. Trader consensus prices these dynamics ahead of the first-round vote.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$139,531วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro (PL) holds an 83.5% implied probability of winning the Paraná gubernatorial race on October 4, 2026, with a possible runoff on October 25, reflecting sustained leads in multiple late-August and early-September polls showing him at 35–45% in the first round. He maintains double-digit advantages over Requião Filho (PDT) and Sandro Alex (PSD), the latter backed by term-limited incumbent Ratinho Júnior (PSD) whose administration enjoys high approval. Recent catalysts include the PL's August convention formalizing Moro's candidacy with Edson Vasconcelos as running mate, alongside ongoing debates and the start of free electoral broadcasts. Sandro Alex at 15.5% benefits from state resources and Rafael Greca's vice slot, yet polling gaps have not narrowed meaningfully. Lower probabilities for other listed candidates align with their sub-2% shares across surveys. Trader consensus prices these dynamics ahead of the first-round vote.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$139,531วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Sergio Moro (PL) holds an 83.5% implied probability of winning the Paraná gubernatorial race on October 4, 2026, with a possible runoff on October 25, reflecting sustained leads in multiple late-August and early-September polls showing him at 35–45% in the first round. He maintains double-digit advantages over Requião Filho (PDT) and Sandro Alex (PSD), the latter backed by term-limited incumbent Ratinho Júnior (PSD) whose administration enjoys high approval. Recent catalysts include the PL's August convention formalizing Moro's candidacy with Edson Vasconcelos as running mate, alongside ongoing debates and the start of free electoral broadcasts. Sandro Alex at 15.5% benefits from state resources and Rafael Greca's vice slot, yet polling gaps have not narrowed meaningfully. Lower probabilities for other listed candidates align with their sub-2% shares across surveys. Trader consensus prices these dynamics ahead of the first-round vote.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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