Renan Santos, the Mission Party candidate in Brazil’s 2026 presidential race, has already joined one televised debate on August 23 and faces multiple scheduled encounters before the October 4 first round. A late-August electoral court restriction on his campaign activities, including debate participation, was lifted in early September, restoring eligibility and removing the main near-term legal obstacle. Santos has since confirmed involvement in an additional September 14 event and continues media appearances, aligning with trader expectations that he will meet the minimum requirement of speaking at least once in a live broadcast with other registered candidates. High implied probability reflects the combination of restored access, confirmed scheduling, and absence of fresh barriers. Remaining risks include unforeseen court reversals, candidate withdrawal, or last-minute event cancellations before the resolution deadline.