**Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign has repeatedly conditioned participation in presidential debates on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s presence, producing a pattern of mutual absences that traders view as likely to continue through the October 4 first round.** The August 23 Band debate proceeded without either frontrunner after both sides declined to confirm, with Flávio’s team stating it seeks a direct matchup rather than events featuring lower-polling candidates. A mid-September consortium debate was subsequently canceled when neither campaign met the confirmation deadline. Remaining scheduled events—Record on September 27 and Globo on October 1—face the same dynamic, as both leading candidates have prioritized avoiding formats that could generate unfavorable clips absent their primary opponent. This risk-averse posture, combined with the compressed timeline before the first round, underpins the 56% “No” consensus.