Recent September 2026 polling consistently places President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as the clear first-round frontrunners, with each typically receiving 37–46 percent support while all other declared candidates remain in low single digits. This fragmentation of the remaining field, including candidates such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Augusto Cury, has kept the two leading contenders on track to advance to the October 25 runoff if neither secures an outright majority on October 4. Runoff simulations show the pair statistically tied or within the margin of error, reflecting Brazil’s polarized electorate and the limited momentum of alternative right-wing or centrist options. Free electoral broadcasts and final campaign events through early October represent the last major opportunities for shifts in first-round positioning. Trader consensus on prediction markets aligns with these patterns, pricing the two frontrunners at very high probabilities of advancing.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhich candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
$666,520 ปริมาณ
Oct 3, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
98%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
97%
Renan Santos
1%
Romeu Zema
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
$666,520 ปริมาณ
Flavio Bolsonaro
$110,963 ปริมาณ
98%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$319,550 ปริมาณ
97%
Renan Santos
$27,001 ปริมาณ
1%
Romeu Zema
$1,448 ปริมาณ
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
$86,608 ปริมาณ
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$918 ปริมาณ
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$37,835 ปริมาณ
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$18,115 ปริมาณ
1%
Fernando Haddad
$65,944 ปริมาณ
<1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent September 2026 polling consistently places President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as the clear first-round frontrunners, with each typically receiving 37–46 percent support while all other declared candidates remain in low single digits. This fragmentation of the remaining field, including candidates such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Augusto Cury, has kept the two leading contenders on track to advance to the October 25 runoff if neither secures an outright majority on October 4. Runoff simulations show the pair statistically tied or within the margin of error, reflecting Brazil’s polarized electorate and the limited momentum of alternative right-wing or centrist options. Free electoral broadcasts and final campaign events through early October represent the last major opportunities for shifts in first-round positioning. Trader consensus on prediction markets aligns with these patterns, pricing the two frontrunners at very high probabilities of advancing.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$666,520วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent September 2026 polling consistently places President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as the clear first-round frontrunners, with each typically receiving 37–46 percent support while all other declared candidates remain in low single digits. This fragmentation of the remaining field, including candidates such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Augusto Cury, has kept the two leading contenders on track to advance to the October 25 runoff if neither secures an outright majority on October 4. Runoff simulations show the pair statistically tied or within the margin of error, reflecting Brazil’s polarized electorate and the limited momentum of alternative right-wing or centrist options. Free electoral broadcasts and final campaign events through early October represent the last major opportunities for shifts in first-round positioning. Trader consensus on prediction markets aligns with these patterns, pricing the two frontrunners at very high probabilities of advancing.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$666,520วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Recent September 2026 polling consistently places President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as the clear first-round frontrunners, with each typically receiving 37–46 percent support while all other declared candidates remain in low single digits. This fragmentation of the remaining field, including candidates such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Augusto Cury, has kept the two leading contenders on track to advance to the October 25 runoff if neither secures an outright majority on October 4. Runoff simulations show the pair statistically tied or within the margin of error, reflecting Brazil’s polarized electorate and the limited momentum of alternative right-wing or centrist options. Free electoral broadcasts and final campaign events through early October represent the last major opportunities for shifts in first-round positioning. Trader consensus on prediction markets aligns with these patterns, pricing the two frontrunners at very high probabilities of advancing.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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