The Tongatapu 2 by-election, triggered by the court-ordered unseating of the 2025 winner on bribery charges, features nine candidates in a first-past-the-post contest scheduled for 8 October. Fragmented support among independents, including Mounu Uaisele, Malakai Koloamatangi, ‘Olioni Manoa, Samiuela Vea, Mele ‘Amanaki, Alvin Lafu Sika, and others, has produced closely matched implied probabilities, as no single contender has consolidated a clear plurality. Withdrawals by some aspirants to back others have narrowed the field modestly but not enough to establish a decisive leader ahead of final voter registration. Historical patterns of local alliances and village-level mobilization in this constituency continue to shape the contest, leaving outcome probabilities sensitive to late shifts in endorsements or turnout.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLei Paasi 33%
Samiuela Vea 30%
Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki 29%
Alvin Lafu Sika 26%
Lei Paasi
33%
Samiuela Vea
30%
Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki
29%
Alvin Lafu Sika
26%
Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi
26%
Sione Harvard Tupouniua
26%
'Olioni Manoa
24%
'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila
24%
Mounu Uaisele
9%
Lei Paasi 33%
Samiuela Vea 30%
Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki 29%
Alvin Lafu Sika 26%
Lei Paasi
33%
Samiuela Vea
30%
Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki
29%
Alvin Lafu Sika
26%
Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi
26%
Sione Harvard Tupouniua
26%
'Olioni Manoa
24%
'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila
24%
Mounu Uaisele
9%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.
If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.
If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The Tongatapu 2 by-election, triggered by the court-ordered unseating of the 2025 winner on bribery charges, features nine candidates in a first-past-the-post contest scheduled for 8 October. Fragmented support among independents, including Mounu Uaisele, Malakai Koloamatangi, ‘Olioni Manoa, Samiuela Vea, Mele ‘Amanaki, Alvin Lafu Sika, and others, has produced closely matched implied probabilities, as no single contender has consolidated a clear plurality. Withdrawals by some aspirants to back others have narrowed the field modestly but not enough to establish a decisive leader ahead of final voter registration. Historical patterns of local alliances and village-level mobilization in this constituency continue to shape the contest, leaving outcome probabilities sensitive to late shifts in endorsements or turnout.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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