The Ongo Niua 17 by-election, scheduled for October 8, 2026, stems from a Supreme Court ruling that voided the 2025 general election victory of Lataifaingata’a Tangimana over bribery findings involving voter distributions. Five candidates have registered following September nominations: Sitiveni Selui, ‘Aminiasi Tonga Pau’u Tangimana, Sione Tuifio Hui, ‘Aisake Hoatatau Finau, and Paea ‘i Vaha Filimoehala, each representing different villages in the small Niuas constituency under first-past-the-post rules. Current trader consensus shows a fragmented field, with Sitiveni Selui at 40% implied probability and the next contenders clustered lower amid limited public polling. Village-level loyalties, local campaign activity, and any late endorsements or withdrawals could consolidate support and shift probabilities ahead of the vote.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วSione Tuifio Hui 37.0%
'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana 22%
Sitiveni Selui 14.0%
'Aisake Hoatatau Finau 6%
Sione Tuifio Hui
26%
'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana
22%
Sitiveni Selui
14%
'Aisake Hoatatau Finau
6%
Paea 'i Vaha Filimoehala
<1%
Sione Tuifio Hui 37.0%
'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana 22%
Sitiveni Selui 14.0%
'Aisake Hoatatau Finau 6%
Sione Tuifio Hui
26%
'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana
22%
Sitiveni Selui
14%
'Aisake Hoatatau Finau
6%
Paea 'i Vaha Filimoehala
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Ongo Niua 17 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.
If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 9, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Ongo Niua 17 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.
If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The Ongo Niua 17 by-election, scheduled for October 8, 2026, stems from a Supreme Court ruling that voided the 2025 general election victory of Lataifaingata’a Tangimana over bribery findings involving voter distributions. Five candidates have registered following September nominations: Sitiveni Selui, ‘Aminiasi Tonga Pau’u Tangimana, Sione Tuifio Hui, ‘Aisake Hoatatau Finau, and Paea ‘i Vaha Filimoehala, each representing different villages in the small Niuas constituency under first-past-the-post rules. Current trader consensus shows a fragmented field, with Sitiveni Selui at 40% implied probability and the next contenders clustered lower amid limited public polling. Village-level loyalties, local campaign activity, and any late endorsements or withdrawals could consolidate support and shift probabilities ahead of the vote.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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