Mary Peltola advanced from Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan primary with 49.5% of the vote, ahead of incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan at 41.4%, in a contest rated a toss-up by most forecasters and conducted under ranked-choice voting. Recent polls have shown the race remaining close, with Peltola often edging or tying Sullivan among likely voters. Traders appear to weigh Peltola’s primary momentum, strong fundraising, and appeal in a state with independent voters more heavily than Sullivan’s incumbency and Republican base, producing the current 66.5% to 33.5% implied probabilities. Minor candidates on the November 3 general-election ballot register negligible support.