**The competitive U.S. Senate contest between Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, combined with an open gubernatorial race, has generated sustained voter interest ahead of the November 3 general election.** Recent polling shows a toss-up, with Peltola holding narrow leads in several surveys and Sullivan maintaining an edge in others, consistent with Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system and its history of close statewide outcomes. The August 18 top-four primary drew unusually high participation—nearly 167,000 ballots, or about 27.7% of registered voters—reflecting elevated stakes that analysts link to the absence of an incumbent governor and the Senate matchup’s national implications. These factors support trader expectations for general-election turnout in the 290,000–305,000 range as the most probable outcome, with adjacent bands reflecting typical variability in a state where registered voters number around 600,000 and participation is influenced by mail and early voting patterns.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAlaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)
Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)
290K-305K 43%
275K-290K 29%
305K-320K 26%
260K-275K 7.5%
<230K
2%
230K-245K
1%
245K-260K
1%
260K-275K
8%
275K-290K
29%
290K-305K
43%
305K-320K
26%
320K+
1%
290K-305K 43%
275K-290K 29%
305K-320K 26%
260K-275K 7.5%
<230K
2%
230K-245K
1%
245K-260K
1%
260K-275K
8%
275K-290K
29%
290K-305K
43%
305K-320K
26%
320K+
1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**The competitive U.S. Senate contest between Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, combined with an open gubernatorial race, has generated sustained voter interest ahead of the November 3 general election.** Recent polling shows a toss-up, with Peltola holding narrow leads in several surveys and Sullivan maintaining an edge in others, consistent with Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system and its history of close statewide outcomes. The August 18 top-four primary drew unusually high participation—nearly 167,000 ballots, or about 27.7% of registered voters—reflecting elevated stakes that analysts link to the absence of an incumbent governor and the Senate matchup’s national implications. These factors support trader expectations for general-election turnout in the 290,000–305,000 range as the most probable outcome, with adjacent bands reflecting typical variability in a state where registered voters number around 600,000 and participation is influenced by mail and early voting patterns.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
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