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icon for Какой будет ставка ФРС в конце 2026 года?
Политика·Fed Rates

Какой будет ставка ФРС в конце 2026 года?

icon for Какой будет ставка ФРС в конце 2026 года?
Политика·Fed Rates

Какой будет ставка ФРС в конце 2026 года?

4,25% 54.9%

≥ 4,5% 29.8%

4,0% 13.5%

3,75% 3.7%

Polymarket

$6,888,769 Объем

4,25% 54.9%

≥ 4,5% 29.8%

4,0% 13.5%

3,75% 3.7%

Polymarket

$6,888,769 Объем

≤1,0%

$257,452 Объем

<1%

1,25

$153,674 Объем

<1%

1,5%

$151,449 Объем

<1%

1,75%

$153,814 Объем

<1%

2,0%

$269,410 Объем

<1%

2,25%

$93,225 Объем

<1%

2,5%

$179,954 Объем

<1%

2,75%

$70,083 Объем

<1%

3,0%

$500,181 Объем

<1%

3,25%

$85,419 Объем

<1%

3,5%

$206,199 Объем

2%

3,75%

$538,512 Объем

4%

4,0%

$1,373,683 Объем

13%

4,25%

$441,467 Объем

55%

≥ 4,5%

$2,414,247 Объем

30%

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC projections and the September 16 rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. Officials revised the median 2026 dot plot upward to 4.1% amid elevated PCE inflation forecasts of 3.7% and a still-solid labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. Stronger economic data and supply-driven price pressures have reduced near-term easing prospects, with many participants signaling at least one additional quarter-point increase before December. This policy tightening under Chair Kevin Warsh has shifted the implied path higher than June estimates, aligning market pricing with limited further cuts and a higher terminal rate through 2027. Upcoming inflation releases and the December FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Объем
$6,888,769
Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x2F5e3684c...
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC projections and the September 16 rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. Officials revised the median 2026 dot plot upward to 4.1% amid elevated PCE inflation forecasts of 3.7% and a still-solid labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. Stronger economic data and supply-driven price pressures have reduced near-term easing prospects, with many participants signaling at least one additional quarter-point increase before December. This policy tightening under Chair Kevin Warsh has shifted the implied path higher than June estimates, aligning market pricing with limited further cuts and a higher terminal rate through 2027. Upcoming inflation releases and the December FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Объем
$6,888,769
Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x2F5e3684c...

Связанные

icon for Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

68%
icon for Повысит ли ФРС процентные ставки на 25 б.п. после заседания в октябре 2026 года?

Повысит ли ФРС процентные ставки на 25 б.п. после заседания в октябре 2026 года?

55%
Да
icon for Достигнет ли верхняя граница ставки ФРС 4,25% или выше до 2027 года?

Достигнет ли верхняя граница ставки ФРС 4,25% или выше до 2027 года?

76%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Какой будет ставка ФРС в конце 2026 года?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 15 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «4,25%» с 55%, за ним следует «≥ 4,5%» с 30%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 55¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 55%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Какой будет ставка ФРС в конце 2026 года?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $6.9 million с момента запуска рынка Jan 12, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Какой будет ставка ФРС в конце 2026 года?», просмотри 15 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Какой будет ставка ФРС в конце 2026 года?» — «4,25%» с 55%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 55%. Следующий ближайший исход — «≥ 4,5%» с 30%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Какой будет ставка ФРС в конце 2026 года?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.