Dr. Furlan (PSD), the former Macapá mayor who stepped down earlier this year to run, maintains a commanding lead in Amapá's October 4 first-round gubernatorial contest, reflected in the 90.5% market price. Multiple September polls show him at 59-64% of valid votes, roughly double the share for incumbent Clécio Luís (União Brasil), with remaining candidates below 3%. Furlan's position stems from sustained high polling since mid-year, strong personal recognition from his 2024 reelection victory, and ongoing street-level campaigning across municipalities. Clécio's reelection bid faces headwinds from voter preferences captured in surveys. With the vote three weeks away, only an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal or health event would realistically alter the outcome before ballots close.