Arthur Henrique (PL), the former mayor of Boa Vista, maintains a commanding lead in the October 2026 Roraima gubernatorial race due to consistent polling averages near 60 percent and his strong performance in the June 2026 supplemental election, where he captured over 60 percent of valid votes before a pending judicial review of his candidacy registration. Recent surveys, including those from Real Time Big Data and Quaest in August and September, show him ahead of interim governor Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) by roughly 30 points or more, with other registered candidates trailing in single digits. Trader consensus reflects this margin alongside Henrique’s established base in the capital and party alignment, though an adverse electoral court ruling on eligibility or a late shift in turnout patterns could still alter the outcome before first-round voting on October 4.