Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking reelection, holds overwhelming trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability, driven by recent polling trends showing him leading or expanding his advantage over Valmir de Francisquinho of the Republicanos. August and mid-2026 surveys, including those from Quaest and CTAS, placed Fábio ahead by double-digit margins in valid-vote scenarios, reflecting incumbency benefits, coalition-building, and campaign focus on education and infrastructure priorities ahead of the October 4 first round. Valmir, at 10.5%, remains the main opposition contender but trails consistently in late-cycle data, with minor candidates like Ricardo Marques, Emanuel Cacho, and others registering negligible support. The first-round timeline and absence of major late disruptions reinforce the current positioning among traders.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоФабио 90%
Вальмир де Франсискиньо 10%
Тати Кристина де Жезус <1%
Эмануэль Кашо <1%
$19,773 Объем
$19,773 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Фабио
90%
Вальмир де Франсискиньо
10%
Тати Кристина де Жезус
<1%
Эмануэль Кашо
<1%
Доктор Хелтон
<1%
Рикардо Маркес
<1%
Фабио 90%
Вальмир де Франсискиньо 10%
Тати Кристина де Жезус <1%
Эмануэль Кашо <1%
$19,773 Объем
$19,773 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Фабио
$15,659 Объем
90%
Вальмир де Франсискиньо
$1,717 Объем
10%
Тати Кристина де Жезус
$637 Объем
<1%
Эмануэль Кашо
$618 Объем
<1%
Доктор Хелтон
$699 Объем
<1%
Рикардо Маркес
$443 Объем
<1%
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking reelection, holds overwhelming trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability, driven by recent polling trends showing him leading or expanding his advantage over Valmir de Francisquinho of the Republicanos. August and mid-2026 surveys, including those from Quaest and CTAS, placed Fábio ahead by double-digit margins in valid-vote scenarios, reflecting incumbency benefits, coalition-building, and campaign focus on education and infrastructure priorities ahead of the October 4 first round. Valmir, at 10.5%, remains the main opposition contender but trails consistently in late-cycle data, with minor candidates like Ricardo Marques, Emanuel Cacho, and others registering negligible support. The first-round timeline and absence of major late disruptions reinforce the current positioning among traders.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Объем
$19,773Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking reelection, holds overwhelming trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability, driven by recent polling trends showing him leading or expanding his advantage over Valmir de Francisquinho of the Republicanos. August and mid-2026 surveys, including those from Quaest and CTAS, placed Fábio ahead by double-digit margins in valid-vote scenarios, reflecting incumbency benefits, coalition-building, and campaign focus on education and infrastructure priorities ahead of the October 4 first round. Valmir, at 10.5%, remains the main opposition contender but trails consistently in late-cycle data, with minor candidates like Ricardo Marques, Emanuel Cacho, and others registering negligible support. The first-round timeline and absence of major late disruptions reinforce the current positioning among traders.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Объем
$19,773Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking reelection, holds overwhelming trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability, driven by recent polling trends showing him leading or expanding his advantage over Valmir de Francisquinho of the Republicanos. August and mid-2026 surveys, including those from Quaest and CTAS, placed Fábio ahead by double-digit margins in valid-vote scenarios, reflecting incumbency benefits, coalition-building, and campaign focus on education and infrastructure priorities ahead of the October 4 first round. Valmir, at 10.5%, remains the main opposition contender but trails consistently in late-cycle data, with minor candidates like Ricardo Marques, Emanuel Cacho, and others registering negligible support. The first-round timeline and absence of major late disruptions reinforce the current positioning among traders.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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