Lula holds an 83.5% implied probability as first-round winner in the October 4, 2026, Brazilian presidential election, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 16%, with other candidates at 0.1–6.6% in recent surveys. Multiple polls from Quaest, Datafolha, Meio/Ideia, and Nexus through early September show the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate leading first-round intentions in the mid-to-high 30s percent, while Flávio trails in the low-to-mid 30s and minor candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos remain in single digits. The right-wing vote continues to fragment across several registered contenders, preserving Lula’s plurality advantage even as runoff simulations tighten to near parity. Campaign activity, including candidate registrations finalized in August and ongoing advertising, has not altered this first-round structure. Traders price in the structural edge from incumbency and vote splitting ahead of the October 4 ballot.