Lula’s selective approach to televised debates, driven by concerns over format and opposition attacks, shapes trader assessments for his participation before the October 4 first round. He skipped the August 23 Band event alongside Flávio Bolsonaro and Romeu Zema, citing unequal conditions for smaller parties, and his non-confirmation led a major media pool to cancel the scheduled September 14 debate. Lula has publicly questioned the value of encounters that risk low-level exchanges without advancing public understanding. Individual interviews continue, while remaining pre-first-round opportunities include the September 27 Record and October 1 Globo debates. The 55.5% implied probability for yes reflects this pattern of caution balanced against historical precedent for frontrunners engaging in at least one major forum before voting.