**Nicoletti (PL) holds the strongest position for second place in Roraima’s October 4 Senate election, where voters select two candidates and the top two win seats, amid a fragmented field of 13 contenders.** Recent polls, including Real Time Big Data (early September) and Quaest (late August), show Teresa Surita (MDB) leading overall at 19–25 percent, with Nicoletti, Helena da Asatur (PSD), and Chico Rodrigues (PSB) clustered closely behind at 15–17 percent in consolidated voting. High undecided shares—often exceeding 60 percent in spontaneous responses—combined with the dual-vote mechanic keep second-place probabilities fluid, as small shifts in second preferences or turnout can reorder the outcome. Nicoletti’s local incumbency as a federal deputy and stronger showing in second-vote scenarios underpin his market lead near 45 percent, while da Asatur and Rodrigues trail with lower single-digit implied probabilities. No major late-campaign developments have emerged to break the deadlock in the final weeks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNicoletti 44.4%
Teresa Surita 26%
Helena da Asatur 8.1%
Chico Rodrigues 5.0%
$68,655 Vol.
$68,655 Vol.
Nicoletti
47%
Teresa Surita
26%
Helena da Asatur
8%
Chico Rodrigues
5%
Helio Bolsonaro
5%
Mario Rocha
<1%
Bartô Macuxi
<1%
Hilton Xavier
<1%
Hiperion de Oliveira
<1%
Márcio Junqueira
<1%
Pastor Isamar
<1%
Regina Tio Ivo
<1%
Rogério Miranda
<1%
Nicoletti 44.4%
Teresa Surita 26%
Helena da Asatur 8.1%
Chico Rodrigues 5.0%
$68,655 Vol.
$68,655 Vol.
Nicoletti
47%
Teresa Surita
26%
Helena da Asatur
8%
Chico Rodrigues
5%
Helio Bolsonaro
5%
Mario Rocha
<1%
Bartô Macuxi
<1%
Hilton Xavier
<1%
Hiperion de Oliveira
<1%
Márcio Junqueira
<1%
Pastor Isamar
<1%
Regina Tio Ivo
<1%
Rogério Miranda
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Nicoletti (PL) holds the strongest position for second place in Roraima’s October 4 Senate election, where voters select two candidates and the top two win seats, amid a fragmented field of 13 contenders.** Recent polls, including Real Time Big Data (early September) and Quaest (late August), show Teresa Surita (MDB) leading overall at 19–25 percent, with Nicoletti, Helena da Asatur (PSD), and Chico Rodrigues (PSB) clustered closely behind at 15–17 percent in consolidated voting. High undecided shares—often exceeding 60 percent in spontaneous responses—combined with the dual-vote mechanic keep second-place probabilities fluid, as small shifts in second preferences or turnout can reorder the outcome. Nicoletti’s local incumbency as a federal deputy and stronger showing in second-vote scenarios underpin his market lead near 45 percent, while da Asatur and Rodrigues trail with lower single-digit implied probabilities. No major late-campaign developments have emerged to break the deadlock in the final weeks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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