**Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 81% implied probability for first place in the Pará Senate race, reflecting his consistent lead in recent polling as the top vote-getter.** A September 3–7 Real Time Big Data survey of 1,600 voters showed him at 36% in consolidated first- and second-preference votes, ahead of Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 17% and a group including Celso Sabino (PDT), Chicão (União Brasil), and incumbent Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) at 12% each. Helder’s advantage stems from his high name recognition as term-limited outgoing governor, broad coalition backing, and strong first-preference support (45% in the same poll). The October 4 election renews two Senate seats, with voters selecting two candidates; lower-polling names such as Mauro trail significantly in trader pricing, consistent with their single-digit to mid-teen shares in surveys. No major late shifts have altered this positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHelder 80%
Delegado Éder Mauro 10.4%
Zequinha Marinho 5.4%
Edlaine Rodrigues 5.3%
$17,237 Vol.
$17,237 Vol.
4 out 2026
Helder
80%
Delegado Éder Mauro
10%
Zequinha Marinho
5%
Edlaine Rodrigues
5%
Breno Guimarães
1%
Fernanda Lopes
1%
Celso Sabino
1%
Conti
<1%
Chicão
<1%
Gizelle Freitas
<1%
Willem da Silva
<1%
Helder 80%
Delegado Éder Mauro 10.4%
Zequinha Marinho 5.4%
Edlaine Rodrigues 5.3%
$17,237 Vol.
$17,237 Vol.
4 out 2026
Helder
$11,644 Vol.
80%
Delegado Éder Mauro
$635 Vol.
10%
Zequinha Marinho
$569 Vol.
5%
Edlaine Rodrigues
$600 Vol.
5%
Breno Guimarães
$529 Vol.
1%
Fernanda Lopes
$726 Vol.
1%
Celso Sabino
$499 Vol.
1%
Conti
$551 Vol.
<1%
Chicão
$488 Vol.
<1%
Gizelle Freitas
$562 Vol.
<1%
Willem da Silva
$436 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 81% implied probability for first place in the Pará Senate race, reflecting his consistent lead in recent polling as the top vote-getter.**
A September 3–7 Real Time Big Data survey of 1,600 voters showed him at 36% in consolidated first- and second-preference votes, ahead of Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 17% and a group including Celso Sabino (PDT), Chicão (União Brasil), and incumbent Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) at 12% each. Helder’s advantage stems from his high name recognition as term-limited outgoing governor, broad coalition backing, and strong first-preference support (45% in the same poll). The October 4 election renews two Senate seats, with voters selecting two candidates; lower-polling names such as Mauro trail significantly in trader pricing, consistent with their single-digit to mid-teen shares in surveys. No major late shifts have altered this positioning.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$17,237Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 81% implied probability for first place in the Pará Senate race, reflecting his consistent lead in recent polling as the top vote-getter.**
A September 3–7 Real Time Big Data survey of 1,600 voters showed him at 36% in consolidated first- and second-preference votes, ahead of Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 17% and a group including Celso Sabino (PDT), Chicão (União Brasil), and incumbent Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) at 12% each. Helder’s advantage stems from his high name recognition as term-limited outgoing governor, broad coalition backing, and strong first-preference support (45% in the same poll). The October 4 election renews two Senate seats, with voters selecting two candidates; lower-polling names such as Mauro trail significantly in trader pricing, consistent with their single-digit to mid-teen shares in surveys. No major late shifts have altered this positioning.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$17,237Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 81% implied probability for first place in the Pará Senate race, reflecting his consistent lead in recent polling as the top vote-getter.** A September 3–7 Real Time Big Data survey of 1,600 voters showed him at 36% in consolidated first- and second-preference votes, ahead of Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 17% and a group including Celso Sabino (PDT), Chicão (União Brasil), and incumbent Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) at 12% each. Helder’s advantage stems from his high name recognition as term-limited outgoing governor, broad coalition backing, and strong first-preference support (45% in the same poll). The October 4 election renews two Senate seats, with voters selecting two candidates; lower-polling names such as Mauro trail significantly in trader pricing, consistent with their single-digit to mid-teen shares in surveys. No major late shifts have altered this positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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