Traders see the June-through-September FOMC cycle as closely balanced, with the 53.5% “Other” share reflecting meaningful odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike alongside the 46.5% priced for three consecutive holds at the 3.50–3.75% target range. Persistent inflation above the 2% goal, highlighted by June PCE prints and revised 2026 projections near 3.6%, has kept policy restrictive despite a stable labor market near 4.1–4.3% unemployment. The July 29 decision to hold drew three dissents favoring a hike, underscoring internal divisions under Chair Kevin Warsh and removing prior easing signals. With the September 15–16 meeting just days away, fresh inflation and payroll data will determine whether the committee maintains the pause path or shifts toward tightening, leaving limited room for cuts in either scenario.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOther 54%
Pause–Pause–Pause 47%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$842,754 Vol.
$842,754 Vol.
15 set 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
54%
Other 54%
Pause–Pause–Pause 47%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$842,754 Vol.
$842,754 Vol.
15 set 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$326,527 Vol.
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$100,494 Vol.
1%
Other
$359,857 Vol.
54%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders see the June-through-September FOMC cycle as closely balanced, with the 53.5% “Other” share reflecting meaningful odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike alongside the 46.5% priced for three consecutive holds at the 3.50–3.75% target range. Persistent inflation above the 2% goal, highlighted by June PCE prints and revised 2026 projections near 3.6%, has kept policy restrictive despite a stable labor market near 4.1–4.3% unemployment. The July 29 decision to hold drew three dissents favoring a hike, underscoring internal divisions under Chair Kevin Warsh and removing prior easing signals. With the September 15–16 meeting just days away, fresh inflation and payroll data will determine whether the committee maintains the pause path or shifts toward tightening, leaving limited room for cuts in either scenario.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado Aberto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$842,754Data de Término
16 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders see the June-through-September FOMC cycle as closely balanced, with the 53.5% “Other” share reflecting meaningful odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike alongside the 46.5% priced for three consecutive holds at the 3.50–3.75% target range. Persistent inflation above the 2% goal, highlighted by June PCE prints and revised 2026 projections near 3.6%, has kept policy restrictive despite a stable labor market near 4.1–4.3% unemployment. The July 29 decision to hold drew three dissents favoring a hike, underscoring internal divisions under Chair Kevin Warsh and removing prior easing signals. With the September 15–16 meeting just days away, fresh inflation and payroll data will determine whether the committee maintains the pause path or shifts toward tightening, leaving limited room for cuts in either scenario.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$842,754Data de Término
16 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the June-through-September FOMC cycle as closely balanced, with the 53.5% “Other” share reflecting meaningful odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike alongside the 46.5% priced for three consecutive holds at the 3.50–3.75% target range. Persistent inflation above the 2% goal, highlighted by June PCE prints and revised 2026 projections near 3.6%, has kept policy restrictive despite a stable labor market near 4.1–4.3% unemployment. The July 29 decision to hold drew three dissents favoring a hike, underscoring internal divisions under Chair Kevin Warsh and removing prior easing signals. With the September 15–16 meeting just days away, fresh inflation and payroll data will determine whether the committee maintains the pause path or shifts toward tightening, leaving limited room for cuts in either scenario.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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