Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions and tariff effects, has anchored trader consensus around the “Other” outcome at 93.5% for the July–October rate path. The July 29 FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a hike, while August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month to 3.4% year-over-year and core measures stayed elevated near 3.3% on a PCE basis. Labor market data remained stable with unemployment at 4.1% and solid payroll gains, supporting Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish signals including the Jackson Hole speech. Markets now price a 92%+ probability of a 25-basis-point September increase, with further tightening possible in October. A sharper-than-expected cooling in inflation readings or abrupt labor-market deterioration could still shift the implied path toward additional pauses.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOther 93%
Pause–Pause–Pause 6%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
Pause–Cut–Cut <1%
$774,533 Vol.
$774,533 Vol.
28 out 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
6%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
93%
Other 93%
Pause–Pause–Pause 6%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
Pause–Cut–Cut <1%
$774,533 Vol.
$774,533 Vol.
28 out 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$262,324 Vol.
6%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$68,689 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$44,785 Vol.
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$29,422 Vol.
<1%
Other
$325,826 Vol.
93%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions and tariff effects, has anchored trader consensus around the “Other” outcome at 93.5% for the July–October rate path. The July 29 FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a hike, while August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month to 3.4% year-over-year and core measures stayed elevated near 3.3% on a PCE basis. Labor market data remained stable with unemployment at 4.1% and solid payroll gains, supporting Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish signals including the Jackson Hole speech. Markets now price a 92%+ probability of a 25-basis-point September increase, with further tightening possible in October. A sharper-than-expected cooling in inflation readings or abrupt labor-market deterioration could still shift the implied path toward additional pauses.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado Aberto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$774,533Data de Término
28 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions and tariff effects, has anchored trader consensus around the “Other” outcome at 93.5% for the July–October rate path. The July 29 FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a hike, while August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month to 3.4% year-over-year and core measures stayed elevated near 3.3% on a PCE basis. Labor market data remained stable with unemployment at 4.1% and solid payroll gains, supporting Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish signals including the Jackson Hole speech. Markets now price a 92%+ probability of a 25-basis-point September increase, with further tightening possible in October. A sharper-than-expected cooling in inflation readings or abrupt labor-market deterioration could still shift the implied path toward additional pauses.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$774,533Data de Término
28 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, fueled by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions and tariff effects, has anchored trader consensus around the “Other” outcome at 93.5% for the July–October rate path. The July 29 FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a hike, while August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month to 3.4% year-over-year and core measures stayed elevated near 3.3% on a PCE basis. Labor market data remained stable with unemployment at 4.1% and solid payroll gains, supporting Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish signals including the Jackson Hole speech. Markets now price a 92%+ probability of a 25-basis-point September increase, with further tightening possible in October. A sharper-than-expected cooling in inflation readings or abrupt labor-market deterioration could still shift the implied path toward additional pauses.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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