The Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate hike of 25 basis points to a 3.75-4.00% target range, paired with Chair Warsh’s hawkish emphasis on still-elevated PCE inflation near 3.7%, has anchored trader expectations for tighter policy and pushed 5-year Treasury yields higher through mid-month. Geopolitical tensions lifting oil prices have reinforced upside inflation risks, contributing to the 5-year yield climbing from lows near 4.52% early in September to 4.86% by September 18. Market-implied odds now favor limited further easing this year, with the curve reflecting a higher-for-longer path versus earlier expectations. Upcoming CPI and employment data, along with any October FOMC signals, remain key swing factors that could pressure yields lower if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.