Rui Costa (PT) holds an 80% implied probability of finishing first in Bahia's Senate election due to consistent leads in recent voter intention surveys. A Real Time Big Data poll conducted September 4–8, 2026, among 1,600 respondents showed him at 26% in consolidated first- and second-choice votes, well ahead of Jaques Wagner (PT) at 19%, João Roma (PL) at 17%, and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) at 15%, with the latter three statistically tied for the second seat within the 2-point margin of error. Costa's stronger performance on first-choice ballots (39%) reflects his visibility as former Casa Civil minister and alignment with the state's governing PT coalition. The election for the two seats occurs October 4, 2026, with traders pricing limited near-term shifts absent major new polling or campaign events.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRui Costa 80%
Jaques Wagner 12.4%
João Roma 3.3%
Angelo Coronel 2.9%
$28,682 Vol.
$28,682 Vol.
4 out 2026
Rui Costa
80%
Jaques Wagner
12%
João Roma
3%
Angelo Coronel
3%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Carlos Sodré
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Rui Costa 80%
Jaques Wagner 12.4%
João Roma 3.3%
Angelo Coronel 2.9%
$28,682 Vol.
$28,682 Vol.
4 out 2026
Rui Costa
$13,553 Vol.
80%
Jaques Wagner
$6,008 Vol.
12%
João Roma
$2,802 Vol.
3%
Angelo Coronel
$1,835 Vol.
3%
Professora Delliana
$667 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sodré
$800 Vol.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$691 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$741 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Millet
$810 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$775 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) holds an 80% implied probability of finishing first in Bahia's Senate election due to consistent leads in recent voter intention surveys. A Real Time Big Data poll conducted September 4–8, 2026, among 1,600 respondents showed him at 26% in consolidated first- and second-choice votes, well ahead of Jaques Wagner (PT) at 19%, João Roma (PL) at 17%, and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) at 15%, with the latter three statistically tied for the second seat within the 2-point margin of error. Costa's stronger performance on first-choice ballots (39%) reflects his visibility as former Casa Civil minister and alignment with the state's governing PT coalition. The election for the two seats occurs October 4, 2026, with traders pricing limited near-term shifts absent major new polling or campaign events.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$28,682Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) holds an 80% implied probability of finishing first in Bahia's Senate election due to consistent leads in recent voter intention surveys. A Real Time Big Data poll conducted September 4–8, 2026, among 1,600 respondents showed him at 26% in consolidated first- and second-choice votes, well ahead of Jaques Wagner (PT) at 19%, João Roma (PL) at 17%, and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) at 15%, with the latter three statistically tied for the second seat within the 2-point margin of error. Costa's stronger performance on first-choice ballots (39%) reflects his visibility as former Casa Civil minister and alignment with the state's governing PT coalition. The election for the two seats occurs October 4, 2026, with traders pricing limited near-term shifts absent major new polling or campaign events.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$28,682Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rui Costa (PT) holds an 80% implied probability of finishing first in Bahia's Senate election due to consistent leads in recent voter intention surveys. A Real Time Big Data poll conducted September 4–8, 2026, among 1,600 respondents showed him at 26% in consolidated first- and second-choice votes, well ahead of Jaques Wagner (PT) at 19%, João Roma (PL) at 17%, and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) at 15%, with the latter three statistically tied for the second seat within the 2-point margin of error. Costa's stronger performance on first-choice ballots (39%) reflects his visibility as former Casa Civil minister and alignment with the state's governing PT coalition. The election for the two seats occurs October 4, 2026, with traders pricing limited near-term shifts absent major new polling or campaign events.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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